This podcast is all about quantitative finance and financial history. Subscribe to hear about financial markets, derivatives, and how investors use quantitative tools from statistics and corporate finance theory. Included are interviews with some of the most interesting thinkers in finance. Occasional longer form financial documentaries, open up fascinating elements of financial markets history. Patrick Boyle is a quantitative hedge fund manager, a university professor, and a former investme ...
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Can Elon Musk Cut Two Trillion Dollars From the US Budget?
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Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are heading up Donald Trump's newly created Department of Government Efficiency which plans to take aim at wasteful government spending. On the campaign Elon Musk claimed that he could cut two trillion dollars in government spending. What would those cuts look like and how likely is Elon Musk to succeed? Does Elon Musk…
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The Great Depression - An Economic History
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The Great Depression was the worst and deepest peacetime economic shock in the history of the industrialized world. It brought about profound social change and was a significant factor in the drift towards the Second World War.The depth of suffering during the Depression years is hard for many of us to imagine today. More than 1 in five children in…
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The US Economy has been booming in recent years and most Americans are doing better than they were a year ago, unemployment is lower, wages are growing, and inflation is declining. It’s not just the one percent either, the statistics show that Americans across ages and social classes are doing really well. While people should be feeling these tangi…
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There has been a lot of press on how Europe is facing deindustrialization, where manufacturing employment is in terminal decline and the continent can no longer compete due to high energy prices, economic competition, and other factors. In today's video we try to work out if Europe is doomed and should pivot towards tourism - becoming the worlds mu…
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Big tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon and Google are driving the nuclear revival, as to get new power-hungry data centers built in the US and Europe, they have to solve the problem of power generation. Their net zero pledges mean that the sources of power that they have pledged to use have to be low carbon, and they have already invested heavil…
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Since the gold rush, California has been the go-to state for start-up companies. In recent years the Golden State has been losing the competition with neighboring states. More than 500 businesses have left California since 2005. Among these businesses were Fortune 500 companies and the economic impact from these departing companies is likely to be …
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The FBI created their own crypto token called NexFundAI as part of an investigation into price manipulation in crypto markets. As a result of the investigation, the SEC charged three “so-called market makers” and nine individuals for allegedly engaging in schemes to boost the prices of certain crypto assets. The Department of Justice charged 18 peo…
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The Collapse of The Luxury Watch Market - Why Have Secondary Market Prices Fallen So Much?
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Send us a textPrices for the most in-demand luxury watches have been in freefall on the secondary market since March 2022 as a pandemic-era rally fizzled. Are luxury watches a good investment, how do watch prices perform in the long run?Patrick's BooksStatistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https:…
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Send us a textAccording to the consumer advocacy group Public Citizen, almost half of all corporate money contributed to this year's US election campaigns has come from crypto backers and politicians are bending to their will with promises to reduce regulation and consumer protections.Why do Trump and Kamala Harris suddenly support crypto? In today…
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Is Tony Robbins Right About Private Equity?
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Send us a textIn a recent CNBC interview Tony Robbins extolled the virtues of investing in private equity, arguing that private equity provided high returns – with low risk. Is he right? Should everyone invest in Private Equity?Patrick's BooksStatistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to…
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Send us a textAutomakers are hedging their bets on electric vehicles and stepping up their investment in hybrid cars as consumers’ growing disinterest in fully electric vehicles has forced the industry to shift gear.A combination of high EV depreciation and concern over inadequate charging infrastructure has chilled buyers’ enthusiasm for fully ele…
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Tech Bros Inventing Things That Already Exist
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Send us a textIt seems like every day the tech industry comes out with a "brilliant new idea” that turns out to be merely a reinvention of a mundane product that already existed. Tech bros keep reinventing the bus, but they have also taken to reinventing the tea pot, the toothbrush, the lunchbreak and the public park. In today's video we look at th…
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Send us a textThe British government is closing in on a bailout of the Chinese owned British Steel in which taxpayers would inject £600 million pounds into the group.British Steel is one of only two manufacturers of “virgin steel” in the UK alongside Tata Steel at Port Talbot in Wales which some industry experts claim is strategically important. Ta…
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Send us a textIn recent years, a number of companies have been caught claiming to use artificial intelligence while in reality, outsourcing this work to humans. The SEC recently settled with two funds who were misleading investors about their use of the technology. While artificial intelligence has been widely used in industry for decades, not all …
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Adam Robinson - Strategy for Investing and for Life
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Send us a textSign up for Compounded Daily at this link: https://www.compoundeddaily.com/I welcome my friend Adam Robinson to the podcast, the person who has had possibly the most interesting career of anyone I know. He was a teenage Chess prodigy who trained with Bobby Fischer as Fischer prepared to play Boris Spassky for the 1972 world championsh…
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Send us a textOver the next five years the largest cohort of the baby boomer generation will reach retirement age and while it is broadly assumed that they will have comfortable retirements, a recent analysis of their assets shows that more than half of this final group of boomers are not financially prepared to retire whatsoever.In today's video w…
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What's Behind Last Week's Stock Market Drama
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Send us a textThis Monday was one of the worst days for global stock markets in years, Stocks in the US, Europe and Japan tanked on Friday and again on Monday before a partial rebound. Bond yields and foreign exchange rates swung around wildly too.The Magnificent seven stocks lost about $1 trillion dollars in value in just two days. So, what exactl…
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Send us a textBig Tech is slashing hundreds of thousands of jobs and blaming artificial intelligence, but there may be more to the story than that. Intel just announced fifteen thousand layoffs yesterday, causing their stock price to plunge. Big Tech, who for over a decade provided all sorts of employee perks may no longer be the dream place to wor…
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Short-Seller Andrew Left Charged With Fraud!
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Send us a textThe activist short seller Andrew Left surrendered to authorities in Los Angeles on Monday to face federal criminal securities fraud charges, a spokesman for the U.S. Attorney’s Office there said.Both the SEC and a federal grand jury in the Central District of California brought charges against Andrew Left a prominent activist short se…
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Pump and Dump Schemes are Now Totally Legal
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Send us a textA Texas District Judge Andrew S. Hanen has dismissed all charges against seven social-media influencers the SEC and Justice Department had accused of perpetrating a “stock manipulation scheme” on Twitter and Discord, ruling that the prosecution failed to state an offense in a case alleging securities fraud. The influencers were accuse…
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Send us a textU.S. stocks are expected to get a short-term boost in the aftermath of the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump over the weekend, as analysts say the likelihood of his victory in November has increased. Trump's lead has extended itself since Biden's poor debate performance two weeks ago which left his biggest suppo…
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Send us a textGregor MacGregor was a Scottish soldier, adventurer, and con man who invented a Central American country called “Poyais,” in 1820 which he claimed to rule as the “Cazique.” MacGregor attempted to draw British and French investors and settlers to his fictional country. Hundreds invested in Poyaisian government bonds and land certificat…
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Send us a textEvery year, people around the world lose millions of dollars to a sophisticated scam known as “the pig butchering romance scam”. The scam takes its name from the victims, who the scammers call “pigs” that they "fatten up" before slaughter. It usually begins with a text message that appears to be a wrong number. People who respond are …
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Send us a textMillionaires are leaving the UK faster than any country in the world other than China, new data shows.According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, 9,500 millionaires, defined in US dollar terms are leaving the UK this year. Only China - which has more than twice as many people with seven-figure net worths - saw more millio…
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Financial Nihilism - Understanding Meme Stocks & Crypto
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Send us a textDemetri Kofinas came up with the term Financial Nihilism in 2019, describing it as a philosophy that treats the objects of speculation as though they are all intrinsically worthless. Financial nihilism according to Demetri represents an ideological standpoint that questions the value and legitimacy of financial systems, markets, and e…
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Election Chaos! India, Mexico & South Africa
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Send us a textIndia’s stock market took its worst tumble in four years after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP lost its parliamentary majority in a surprise outcome.This result means that Modi will need to rely on smaller parties to form a governing majority in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India’s parliament, raising uncertainty about …
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How WallStreetBets Really Started - Trolls of Wall Street - With Nathaniel Popper
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Send us a textTrolls of Wall Street on Amazon: https://amzn.to/4e40D5MAn interview with Nathaniel Popper the author of Trolls of Wall Street - How the Outcasts and Insurgents Are Hacking the Markets. Trolls of Wall Street is a new book telling the story of an improbable gang of self-proclaimed “degenerates” who made WallStreetBets into a cultural m…
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Was Endless Shrimp to Blame for Red Lobster's Bankruptcy?
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Send us a textRed Lobster was America’s largest casual dining seafood chain, with almost 600 locations across the United States and Canada. Its bankruptcy was announced earlier this week.The bankruptcy declaration insinuates that the chains equity owner who was also their biggest seafood supplier might have decided that their equity stake in the bu…
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Japan Spent 60 Billion Dollars Defending The Yen!
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Send us a textOver a four-day period Japan is suspected to have carried out two interventions to support the yen at an estimated cost of $59 billion dollars.The first intervention came after the yen fell below 160 to the dollar for the first time in 34 years. The second intervention came a few days later after Jerome Powell announced that a rate hi…
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Shell's Fake Carbon Credit Scandal Explained!
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Send us a textEurope’s largest oil and gas company Shell was accused in an investigative report from Greenpeace Canada of selling millions of carbon credits tied to CO2 removal that never took place.Let’s look at what Shell did, how carbon offsets work, and how environmentally beneficial they actually are.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading …
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Won't Somebody Please Think of The Traders??
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Send us a textThe Société Générale Delta One Desk is back in the news after two traders were dismissed - accused of placing unauthorized risky options trades.Kavish Kataria – one of the traders in question - attacked the banks leadership with a LinkedIn post on Thursday saying the “entire risk team and other bosses” were equally responsible for the…
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The Handbag Wars! - Has The FTC Lost Control?
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Send us a textLina Khan's Federal Trade Commission is suing to block Tapestry's $8.5 billion acquisition of Capri Holdings, saying the deal would harm consumers by reducing competition and raising prices in the affordable luxury handbag sector.Monday's lawsuit challenges the proposed deal that would have Tapestry controlling Coach, Kate Spade, Stua…
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Send us a textCheck out Eight Sleep and unlock $200 off using my link: https://www.eightsleep.com/boyle/ British stocks closed at an all-time high this week, but as exciting as a new all-time high might sound, the British stock market has been lagging US and European stocks since the Brexit referendum.A recent report from Goldman Sachs says that th…
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Neom - The Line - The Rise and Fall of Saudi Arabia's Linear City.
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Send us a textSaudi Arabia’s plan to build a 170km long, 500m tall, mirrored city in the desert, filled with 9 million people has been curtailed to 2.4km long.According to Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia’s government had “scaled back its medium-term ambitions” for Neom, of which The Line is the most significant sub-project.The Saudi government had hoped to…
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What Happened to Electric Vehicle Sales?
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Send us a textSales growth of electric vehicles has slowed dramatically this year. Tesla delivered 20% fewer cars in the first quarter of 2024 than in the prior quarter, and BYD who was previously the world’s biggest EV maker saw sales decline more than 40% over the same period.BYD’s EV sales were still up 13% when compared to the same quarter a ye…
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What the End of Japan’s Negative Interest Rates Means
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Send us a textJapan’s central bank raised interest rates last week for the first time in seventeen years, ending the world’s only remaining negative interest rate regime. The Bank of Japan also abandoned its yield curve control policy which has been in place since 2016, which saw it buying Japanese government bonds to keep longer term interest rate…
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Send us a textAfter a decade of decline, bankruptcy filings around the world are on the rise. In the United States, business bankruptcy filings rose more than 40 percent last year and non-business bankruptcy filings rose 16 percent.Bankruptcies in England and Wales just hit a 30-year high according to the latest figures.In Japan, corporate bankrupt…
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Send us a textElon Musk filed a lawsuit last week against OpenAI and its CEO Sam Altman, alleging the company’s deal with Microsoft compromised the start-up’s original mission. Musk is seeking disgorgement, additional unspecified damages and specific performance. Let’s go through these claims one by one, see what legal experts have been saying abou…
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Send us a textOffice mortgage default rates are rising around the world which could mean problems for the banks, insurance companies and pension funds who lent money to real estate investors.Let’s discuss the distressed sales of office buildings that have been happening over the last few months, why New York Community Bancorp is down more that 65% …
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Send us a textA new Harvard Business School study analyzed the impact of giving AI tools, to white collar workers at Boston Consulting Group.In the study, management consultants who were told to use Chat GPT when carrying out a set of consulting tasks were far more productive than their colleagues who were not given access the tool. Not only did AI…
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Are Exports the Only Source of Growth?
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Send us a textAs the global fight over manufacturing share and exports heats up, with surplus economies doubling down on exports, and deficit economies discussing protectionist strategies, the policies of the largest global economies are in clear conflict. Are trade wars likely, how do they work, and can the global economy regain balance?Michael Pe…
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Send us a textAdam Neumann has been trying to buy WeWork - the company he cofounded out of bankruptcy — allegedly with the help of the hedge fund manager Dan Loeb of Third Point.Neumann’s new real estate company "Flow" has sent a letter to WeWork requesting that they consider its takeover approach. Flow has already raised $350 million from the vent…
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Elon Musk Pay Deal Voided - Should Tesla Reincorporate in Texas?
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Send us a textA Delaware court this week voided Elon Musk’s $55.8 billion dollar pay deal with Tesla. The voiding of these stock options erases about a quarter of Musk’s current wealth.The judgement came in response to a shareholder lawsuit launched by Richard Tornetta who owned nine shares in the company. Judge Kathaleen McCormick found Tesla dire…
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Risk & Return - The Jesse Livermore Story
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Send us a textJesse Lauriston Livermore was a famed American stock trader known for his huge successes and devastating failures in the early 20th century. Starting as a "chalkboard boy" in a Boston brokerage, he became hugely wealthy as a trader first in "bucket shops" and then on the exchange in New York. Livermore made millions in the Panic of 19…
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Send us a textBig startups are shutting down. More than 3000 private venture backed startups failed in the last year. Of the startups raising money, 19% were funded at a lower valuation than in prior funding rounds. 38% of VCs disappeared from dealmaking last year and more than a quarter of a million workers at tech companies lost their jobs over t…
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Send us a textHow much do you need to earn per year to be in the top 1%? The answer to this question varies depending on if you are asking about the 1% in a given country or globally?In today's podcast we discuss how much you have to earn and how wealthy you have to be to be considered in the top one percent. We discuss the careers and lifestyles o…
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Why China is Flooding Europe with Cars.
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Send us a textHow is China able to sell European drivers so many cheap cars? Customs data shows that Chinese EV shipments to the European Union have increased by 361% since 2021. All over the world, Chinese automakers are taking market share which is threatening European automakers. Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/…
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Send us a textDozy Mmobuosi, the founder and CEO of Tingo Mobile has been accused by US Regulators of running a "staggering fraud."Tingo Mobile claimed to provide mobile phones to rural farmers in Nigeria and build a fintech super app. It quickly grew into a multibillion-dollar empire with a listing on New York’s Nasdaq stock exchange.Dr Dozy, the …
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Send us a textIn this week's podcast we look at the biggest financial news stories of the year, bank runs, The Elon Musk - Mark Zuckerberg fight, The Sam Bankman Fried Trial and much more.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn…
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Send us a textHigher mortgage rates should be expected to depress the housing market, and the US has just seen one of the steepest rate increases in history.Would-be homebuyers are facing massive sticker shock, with measures of affordability worsening at the fastest pace on record. The US real estate market has frozen up with the volume of new sale…
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