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Insights for long-term stock pickers. Make better decisions when faced with the inherent uncertainty of stock picking. Hi! I’m André. Here’s my investing style: Fundamental approach Ten year timeframes or more Very concentrated, with almost 90% of my invested portfolio in a few individual companies Low turnover: a median and average of two individual stock trades per year Circle of competence: consumer brands Geographies: Europe and US
 
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show series
 
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/investing-in-timber-vs-buying-pulp-stocks 00:00 Intro 00:12 Summary 3:00 Investing in timber: oligopoly controls the market 4:58 There is also geographical concentration… 6:43 Final remarks 11:45 Action points Summary Portugal is a huge Eucalyptus Globulus producer; Portuguese timber investors depend on…
 
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/altri-production-costs-overview 0:00 Intro 0:17 Summary 3:30 Altri production costs 7:54 Summing it up 9:05 Action points Summary Altri produces mainly BHKP, most of which BEKP; Altri’s operational costs are ~500€/ton; Its operational efficiency gains are getting more and more limited. Action points Is …
 
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/inditex-shipping-and-returns-analysis 00:00 Intro 00:10 Summary 03:15 Inditex shipping and returns: Europe 07:34 Inditex shipping and returns: United Kingdom (UK) 12:30 Inditex shipping and returns: United States (US) 15:16 To sum it up 18:19 Action points Summary Inditex (Zara) ships the fastest, and i…
 
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/inditex-store-profitability-per-store-per-m² 0:00 Intro 0:14 Summary 1:22 Inditex store profitability on a per store basis 3:31 Inditex store profitability on a per m² basis 5:51 Inditex profitability per concept, per m² 7:37 Action points Summary Inditex has an EBIT/store of 450k€, compared to H&M’s 27…
 
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/inditex-expansion-of-physical-stores 0:00 Intro 0:14 Summary 4:10 Inditex expansion by physical store count 8:29 Action points Summary Stores play a logistics and advertising role today, being an important chess piece; There’s 94k potential store openings worldwide, with emphasis on China and U.S.; Indi…
 
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/investing-is-a-zero-sum-selfish-game 0:00 Intro 0:18 Summary 2:15 Passive ownership = zero-sum 4:48 Action points Summary The company you own produces new goods and services, so it isn’t a zero-sum case; Passive ownership is useless to everyone but yourself; Entrepreneurship is a direct contribution to …
 
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/mcdonalds-expansion-potential 00:00 Intro 00:15 Summary 01:59 Mcdonald’s expansion due to volume 03:32 Mcdonald’s expansion sensitivity analysis 10:01 To sum it up Summary The U.S. is the benchmark of restaurants per 100K, with a value of ~4; China is 1/3 to 1/2 of the potential restaurant count upside;…
 
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/stock-analysis-checklist-updated-version 0:00 Intro 1:20 A few quick notes 3:24 Stock analysis checklist: latest questions Because new analyses were made since then, new questions came in too. This is an update to that checklist, and here’s the updated pdf I promised. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/s…
 
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/shareholder-focused-companies-no-thanks 00:00 Intro 00:12 Summary 02:11 Facebook’s shareholder focused approach 05:47 Alphabet: shareholder focused or not? 12:14 To end… 15:22 Action points Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2uFjecBDw6KDEYA6Zbk7ah?si=aOPLtnfPRnuhdaEF_eMeZw&nd=1 Website: http://stock…
 
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/bitcoin-disruption-in-financial-services 00:00 Intro 00:13 Summary 02:34 Bitcoin disruption: merchant side 07:07 Credit cards, fraud and privacy 09:04 Bye Paypal, bye Wise, bye Revolut 11:36 Bitcoin disruption via Lightning Network (Strike) 20:03 Competition is good 25:57 Action points Spotify: https://…
 
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/the-impact-of-dividend-in-total-returns 00:00 Intro 01:15 Summary 02:17 Impact of dividend distributions: the good and the bad 07:25 Do you want risk or return? The impact of dividend in your portfolio 10:05 Action points Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2uFjecBDw6KDEYA6Zbk7ah?si=aOPLtnfPRnuhdaEF_…
 
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/sp-500-historical-returns-with-dividends 00:00 Intro 00:27 Should we look at historical returns with or without dividends? 01:29 Accumulating (Acc) v Distributing (Dist) ETF’s 04:15 A look at S&P 500 historical returns with dividends 05:24 What about over a 20 year period? 08:25 40 Year rolling S&P 500 …
 
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/sp500-rolling-returns-10-20-and-40-years 0:00 Intro 0:23 Why bother as a stock picker? 1:48 S&P 500 Rolling 10 Year Returns 4:40 A bigger picture: 20 Year Returns 6:43 The ultimate boss: 40 year S&P 500 CAGR’s Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2uFjecBDw6KDEYA6Zbk7ah?si=aOPLtnfPRnuhdaEF_eMeZw&nd=1 W…
 
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/return-on-capital-formula-conservative-approach 00:00 Intro 00:27 Return on capital by Joel Greenblatt 02:18 What’s the problem with return on capital? 04:33 So, is ROE and ROCE ok? 05:58 My return on capital proposal 09:04 To end… Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2uFjecBDw6KDEYA6Zbk7ah?si=aOPLtnf…
 
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/dcf-alternative-reinvested-capital 00:00 Intro 00:22 Quick DCF model overview 02:03 DCF alternatives that are not CAPM related 05:00 The DCF alternative is: reinvested capital 08:36 DCF alternative: assumptions and adjustments 11:12 Where is the money going? 14:04 Summing up reinvested capital model as …
 
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/spotify-churn-rate-39-hurdle 00:00 Intro 00:12 Spotify doesn’t fully disclose churn rates 03:41 Spotify churn rate sensitivity analysis 06:53 Final remarks Spotify churn rates are just one of the forces that move revenues, although a concerning one: a 39% hurdle. If these assumptions are right, they are…
 
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/conservative-investing-measures-for-stock-pickers 00:00 Intro 00:24 Basic guidelines for conservative investing 01:58 Accounting for inflation in conservative investing 04:36 Getting specific 07:25 Normalize some things, but not others 10:04 Summing it up Conservative investing is playing on the safer s…
 
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/twitter-mdau-doesnt-tell-the-whole-story 0:00 Intro 1:36 From Twitter MAU to Twitter mDAU: History 6:25 Can mDAU substitute MAU? We will take a look at part of Twitter’s user growth history by analysing Twitter mDAU and MAU. The objective is to analyse the company as a potential investment. One of the m…
 
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/index... 0:00 Intro 1:04 Why aren’t you buying the stock? 2:56 Indexing as an alternative 8:45 Conclusion Indexing can be an alternative for a stock picker with parked cash. Is this a good idea? Depending on the type of investor you are, you may be holding a hot potato (cash). And indexing may not help …
 
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/indit... 00:00 Intro 00:19 Where does Inditex growth in profits come from? 05:06 Volume as a revenue source 09:28 Pricing and pricing power 14:04 Inditex growth from product mix 17:16 Inditex growth in profit from cost reductions 18:36 Headcount savings 23:45 Profiting for a longer period 29:32 Putting …
 
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/alphabet-growth-potential-3-main-sources 00:00 Intro 00:18 Alphabet growth from industry shifts 02:34 Shifts from physical to cloud 07:31 Alphabet growth from Youtube 10:19 Unmeasurable sources of revenue 11:36 Conclusion Today we're analysing Alphabet growth sources, particularly the three that are mea…
 
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/alphabets-qualitative-factors/ 00:00 Intro 00:19 Alphabet's qualitative premises 01:45 Business model 03:45 Alphabet's qualitative advantages 07:41 Youtube purchase in 2006 08:49 Great business management 12:12 Free products with indirect benefits 15:08 Alphabet's qualitative hurdles 19:04 Conclusion Al…
 
Written Post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/facebooks-growth-potential/ 00:00 Intro 00:14 Facebook's ad engine 02:00 Where does Facebook's growth in revenue come from? 02:36 First branch: Growth from users 04:43 MAU and Total Addressable Market 07:50 Inflation and user spending 08:40 Second branch: Facebook's growth from relevance 11:37 Third bra…
 
Written post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/qualitative-analysis-of-facebook/ As we did with Inditex, let's start with the basic premises around this business: People like to be entertained. If you think about Facebook and Instagram from a user perspective, what we are doing when scrolling is actually entertaining our minds with the affairs of ot…
 
Written post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/per-share-values-disadvantages/ If you owned 100% of the business (paying enterprise value for every share outstanding) per share values wouldn’t even matter as you own every one of them. Also, buying back shares wouldn’t even be a capital allocation option. That is why I sweat when a company excessivel…
 
Use cost of opportunity instead of CAPM. Written post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/cost-of-issuing-shares-capm-alternative/ When a company issues shares, they likely need the money for their operations. But why not get a loan instead? Sometimes they can’t. Sometimes they consider share issuing to be less expensive. If you use beta in company va…
 
My stock picking checklist, to help you cover your blindsides. Written post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/do-you-have-a-checklist/ I started building my checklist a long time ago, and from time to time I add some new questions to it. I use it in the final stage of analysing a company, it helps to mitigate unchecked aspects of a business and cons…
 
Be wary of averages in your investing process, track record checking and news! Written post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/average-returns-mean-nothing/ I invite you to take a look at the table below and see the difference between average growth and actual CAGR. This is critical in the quantitative analysis of a company, for example when analysin…
 
Careful when using PE Ratio, doesn't account for the company's debt Written post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/market-cap-enterprise-value/ I recommend you to use Enterprise Value because it accounts for the company’s debt. This means I use EV Ratio instead of PE Ratio in any analysis. You can think of EV Ratio as a debt adjusted PE Ratio. --- S…
 
What you know gives you unique insights, but makes you biased. Written post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/investing-in-what-you-use/ The takeaway is: what you use is a great place to fetch ideas. All the single companies (except holdings) I’ve invested in have products that I’ve been using before buying. Be careful with your own biases, we are r…
 
Both have their place, Bitcoin is not as good nor bad as people think. Written post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/bitcoin-vs-stocks-both-again/ I prefer to invest my money in individual companies everytime. Low interest rates and Fiat supply increases are in part pushing stock prices higher, leaving me personally with no choices at the moment. T…
 
The sources: TIKR.com, valueinvestorsclub.com, eaglepointcap.com, The Investor's Podcast Written post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/sources-of-information/ Books are also great sources of information, but we know that already. For US macro analysis, I recommend you to subscribe to USA Facts. They have great insights on how the US economy is bein…
 
Share buybacks are a great way to analyse management behaviour. Written post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/share-buybacks-good-or-bad/ There is not a rule for every company, but we should have trigger points for some behaviours. Ideally, I would love to see: Ocasional repurchases, not every year; Slowing down at increasingly higher multiples. An…
 
Which one to choose, or both? Written post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/net-income-or-free-cash-flow-both/ What you do with the information is up to you. I’m conservative in my approaches, so I use a softened Net Income (3Y Average) pre-adjusted for D&A undercharges. You can take it a step further and use the lowest of the two metrics. I also t…
 
Inditex (fashion retailer) analysis from a qualitative standpoint. Written post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/inditex-qualitative-analysis/ Let’s start with the basic premises of a fast fashion company: People like to look good. This applies to anything that others see: beauty products, a watch, shoes, an iPhone, you name it; People don’t like t…
 
Selling without having another investment to put the money on Converting EUR to USD before the opportunity to buy came Old price anchoring Written post: http://stockpickinginsights.com/my-investing-mistakes-2020/ You are bound to make mistakes, even when you think you won’t as at one point I thought. Better for you to be aware of it and don’t make …
 
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