"THIS IS YOUR SHOW!" ..... Lets just put that out there first and foremost. This show is for the Artist, the Listeners, the ones that Do & Don't know, and the ones that don't care to know. This is a Music show but don't every get it twisted we gonna cover more than that trust me. So stay tuned in and tapped in with me Uncle Bo$$ as I strive to keep it "$ukka Free" for Y'all!
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There is nothing more fascinating than a fixed income instrument. Nothing. Listen to Jim transport you to a world of convexity, basis points, covenants and debt-to-gdp. For professional investors only. No advice here. No mention of funds or products. Personal thoughts, not that of any employer.
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Does that mean global growth is reaccelerating?
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Equity Yields Are Way Below Credit Yields. Does That Make Sense?
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12:11
And Biden puts 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs.
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Aggregate US stats are now disappointing- although the rest of the world is doing OK.
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Greenspan, ‘Atlas Shrugged’, & 2001 A Space Odyssey
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10:59
Also: Swedish rate cut, and no more excess savings left in America.
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2 year US Treasury bond yields drop from 5% to 4.75% in 2 days.
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And H5N1 (Bird Flu) starts to get attention in financial markets. Gulp.
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Also: yen intervention at last? And US immigration at 3 million per year.
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US Growth Slows Sharply in Q1, But Bonds Don’t Like PCE Inflation. 5% 2 Year Treasury Yields.
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10:49
And Japanese inflation goes the other way, with a downside shock.
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The Tortured Bond Investors Department
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10:21
Ben Bernanke v the Bank of England.
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UJWOB Season 13: Bond Markets Now More Pessimistic Than The Fed On Rate Cuts
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And: Skyscraper - I Love You.
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India 🇮🇳 Special: Bond Index Inclusion In June, And Economic Outperformance
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And RIP behavioural economist Daniel Kahneman.
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Anniversaries Galore! And Has The Fed Changed Its Reaction Function?
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Looser Fed, so Barclays says ‘buy TIPS’.
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Central Banks Getting Fidgety: Moves From Switzerland, Mexico, Taiwan, Japan.
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And I take a look at Monetary Policy Rules like the Taylor Rule (Spoiler Alert: the Fed should cut now).
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Finally - Good Inflation News For The First Time In Months. UK CPI Below Expectations.
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Also: CPI index rebalancing, corporate default rates, and the extreme injustice of the Nottingham Forest points deduction.
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The End Of Negative Interest Rates in Japan 🇯🇵
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The BoJ is expected to hike for the first time since 2007 later this week. And the Fed might signal a higher r* via the ‘dot plot’ at this week’s FOMC.
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Why Is The Last Mile The Hardest Mile?
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And in credit-land, the NIP (New Issue Premium) has turned negative!
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The latest US jobs numbers reinforced the market’s view that the economy is resilient, but not re-accelerating.
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What does the Budget mean for gilts? And how does ‘tipflation’ get measured in the CPI?
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No Sign of Inflation Re-Accelerating In the PCE Deflator Data
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And a load of economic ephemera to keep you entertained. Includes a disconnect in the textbooks as to the causes of the Great Depression.
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Larry Summers: A ‘Meaningful’ Chance Of A Fed Hike
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And the cost of getting your kids driving a car. A drag on economic growth?
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Do NVIDIA’s Results Mean That r* Needs To Rise?
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The AI boom could raise the world’s cost of capital.
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And some economics related pop and rock songs. More needed please!
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And the Nikkei approaches its 1989 all time time, having fallen by 81% in the meantime.
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Government Bonds Start 2024 With A Bit Of A Kicking
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And more motorway related urban myths.
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Is The Game Up For J-Pow As Trump Attacks?
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And US employment is still on 🔥.
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Letter From America: the US Economic Outlook Live From Manhattan
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What’s the best New York song by the way? The LCD Soundsystem one? Velvet Underground’s Waiting For My Man? Fairytale of NY? Empire State of Mind? Don’t say Frank Sinatra.
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How Italy 🇮🇹 Is Financing Its Budget Deficit: Grandma and Grandpa
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Also: a shock for the UK economy with a collapse in retail sales.
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Why Do Americans Feel So Lousy About The US Economy?
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Growth is strong, inflation is back towards target, jobs are plentiful.
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Un-Inversion. Upward Sloping Yield Curves Are Back!
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Lowest 2 year yields since May 2023, despite a stronger than expected CPI print.
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Huge supply wave in January.
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Season 12 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds
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Election year - definitely. Soft landing year - maybe.
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2024 Fixed Income Outlook: The Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds Special
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Man I go on a bit. The stuff about The Pogues is at 38 minutes if you can’t face the rest.
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The End of Season 11 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds
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In which Uncle Jim talks you through his brother-in-law’s Spotify Unwrapped.
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Alistair Darling, Moral Hazard and Northern Rock
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And Eurozone inflation falls by more than expected.
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Charlie Munger RIP. And Fed’s Waller Triggers a Bond Rally
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Also Noah Smith on productivity
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The UK’s Autumn Statement - Whoops We Did It Again?
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Gilts underperformed significantly last week on higher borrowing expectations. Don’t worry though - it wasn’t as bad as the Trussonomics sell-off.
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The Turning Point? Inflation Falls, Bonds Rally, the Dollar Tanks.
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US CPI for a October came in flat, leading to a big move lower in global bond yields.
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US Credit Rating At Risk. UK Growth Stagnates.
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We also have Moody’s looking at Italy’s credit rating this week, with the risk of a downgrade to junk.
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Also today - why you shouldn’t necessarily believe in really old people.
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What would you do with your portfolio if you knew Trump was going to be next US President?
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UJWOB Credit Special Part 2: Banks - The Dave Covey Interview
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Banking analyst Dave Covey talks CS AT1s, BoA’s US Treasury bond holdings, CRE lending and so much more.
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The 4.99% US Treasury Yield and the Power of Convexity.
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Also: ‘Kilts’ and Central Bank Stories.
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A deep(ish) dive into the corporate bond market.
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US Service Sector Inflation Kills The Bond Market Rally
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And Claudia Goldin wins the Economics Nobel Prize.
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US Employment, Flight-to-Quality On Middle East Fears, Italy.
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And a belated look at Arslanalp & Eichengreen’s paper on government debt levels. TL;DR - tough to get them down from here given the growth outlook.
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101 Reasons For The Great Bond Sell-Off
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And why Rishi Sunak faces a tricky election timing call given inflation base effects.
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A Summary Of Recent Bond & Currency Moves
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And Judy Stephenson’s letter to the FT about making sure you use the right inflation numbers when looking at historical building costs.
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If they are, it could mean lower rates, not higher rates…
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What Happened to The Pandemic Savings? Pretty Much All Gone I’m Afraid.
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Bonds can’t catch a break though. Highest UST yields since 2007.
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Also: NFTs, AI, Auto Workers’ Strike.
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