Roozbeh Aliabadi is an advisor and commentator on geopolitical risk and geoeconomics, particularly the Middle East and Asia. He is an advisory partner in the global advisory practice at GGA, a boutique international consultancy practice based in New York City.
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USA vs. Iran (The Biggest Geopolitical Match of Qatar 2022 World Cup)
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The US and Iran go to war Today! ... on a football pitch. The two sides meet in their last first-round game of the Qatar World Cup, and whoever wins will almost certainly advance to the knockout stage — a first for Iran. But this time, the long-running geopolitical tensions between the two bitter enemies have taken a back seat to the ongoing women-…
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If you tour Doha, the capital of Qatar, the men's football World Cup is all around. There's a FIFA installation every few meters, flags and soccer balls line the pavements, and the streets shine bright with Qatar 2022-branded lights. But none of this matters because Qatar hosts a big party for wealthy Arabs. Most have flown in from neighboring coun…
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Saudi World Cup win is a victory for all Arabs — and a BIG PR for the Kingdom
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Saudi Arabia's incredible victory over Argentina on Tuesday was one of the greatest upsets in World Cup history. The game made the entire Kingdom proud — and sent long-awaited ripples of soccer joy throughout the Arab world.
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Since it invaded Ukraine, Russia hasn't just been making enemies and losing friends. Some Central Asian countries – considered part of Russia's backyard thanks to their Soviet heritage – have begun distancing themselves from Moscow. Astana wants to diversify its trade and diplomacy. Still, the country's proximity to Russia – compounded by political…
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Will politics or football win Qatar's World Cup?
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This Sunday- just two days from today - is the day half the world has eagerly awaited for four years. The men's football or soccer (for my American Audience) World Cup — the most-watched event of the most popular sport on the planet — kicks off in, of all places, Qatar. For one thing, it's not the first time a World Cup host has had a dodgy human r…
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Despite lowering the anticipated “Red Wave” to a mere trickle in the midterms last week, he’s running. Despite an upcoming Georgia Senate runoff that hangs in the balance, Mr. Trump is actually running. Trouble is brewing within the GOP itself. Trump might be too toxic to win a general election himself now, but without his voters, no Republican sta…
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The BIG meeting: Joe Biden and Xi Jinping
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Today, US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart President Xi Jinping are having their first face-to-face meeting since Joe Biden was elected in 2020. Since they last met in 2011, when both were vice presidents, tensions between Washington and Beijing have only escalated. Stabilizing the world’s most important bilateral relationship is ess…
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From Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Market to China and Trade
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As we are closing the week, the big news is happening on the economic and political fronts around the world. The American economy got some good news yesterday: Monthly inflation in October dropped to 7.7%, down from 8.2% in September, and is now at its lowest since January 2022. The crypto market's really poor run got even worse this week after FTX…
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The world is suffering from uncomfortably high inflation as economies adjust to the troubles brought by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, and all other crazy stuff happening around the world, but several countries are dealing with double- or triple-digit price increases or inflation. In Argentina, for example, a rapid acceleration of price gains…
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Midterm elections are always a referendum on incumbency, as demonstrated by the fact that the party in control of the White House has lost Congressional seats in 36 out of 39 midterm races since the Civil War. It’s nearly impossible to satisfy voters – particularly those caught in a painful spiral of inflation and recession worries – by advocating …
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Let's Start the Week with 3 Questions (US Mid-term, Twitter and COP27)
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Let's start the week with three questions. Will US Voters show up on Tuesday? Will wealthy countries compensate or pay poor ones for climate change? What is going on with Elon Musk and Twitter? Most Americans already have firm views of the Republican and Democratic parties, and their midterm votes have been set in stone for some time. In close race…
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From Assassination Attempt in Pakistan and German Chancellor's Visiting China to the Last Push in Pennsylvania as America is Getting Ready to VOTE!
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Pakistan's former PM Imran Khan — aka "Kaptaan" for his cricket awards and lead-from-the-front style of populist politics — survived an assassination attempt on Thursday during his "Long March" to Islamabad. Mr. Khan, who was removed from office last April, has been demanding snap elections, but he's been ignored so far. Despite his party-sweeping …
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America is getting ready for the Mid-term on Nov 8th, but the bigger battle is in the State Court System!
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American voters are getting ready for the mid-term elections. President Biden blamed former President Donald Trump's "big lie" about the 2020 election being stolen and called out the violent attack on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband, Paul. In response to the speech, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell tweeted that the President was "despera…
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Bad News from China and the Korean Peninsula ... but some good News from Ukraine and Ethiopia!
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Bad news in Asia. China’s manufacturing sector is in a tailspin this week after several enormous production lines were shut down due to the country’s restrictive zero-COVID policy. North Korea released its largest-ever, one-day flurry of missiles on Wednesday, firing 23 ballistics into the sea. Why? Supreme leader Kim Jong Un detests being forgotte…
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Four Trouble Spots Around the World This Week!
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We are Back! In this episode of RoozCast, we will examine the recent lunch date between Venezuela and Columbia. We then move to Israel to see what Bibi Netanyahu is doing, and he is getting closer to political victory. We then move to another tense spot, Saudi Arabia, which is being threatened by Iran. Last but not least, we moved to Brazil, where …
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In this episode, I discuss how India is dealing with the second-highest confirmed COVID cases in the world. India is competing with China in its vaccine diplomacy and struggling to protect a sizable portion of its 1.4 billion population.
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Could China succeed where other outsiders (British, Russian, and American) have lost – and without a costly and dangerous military occupation? Is the hope of profitable trade and investment enough to guarantee a power-sharing deal among Afghanistan's fighting factions? Over the years, China's rulers have seen other major powers stuck in Afghanistan…
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The most ambitious global immunization drive in history is in action. Over the past three months, more than 250 million COVID shots have been administered in over 100 countries, and the vaccination rate is gradually increasing. At the current rate, around 6.3 million doses are being administered daily. It's a rare moment of good news after over a y…
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It's not just about that vacation you've been dreaming of since the pandemic shut down travel. Many organizations, institutions, and employers could begin requiring proof of vaccination before they hire you — or even to let you in the office for an interview. Are vaccine passports a good idea? People, governments, and businesses need to know who mi…
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Donald Trump and the Future of the Republican Party
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Donal Trump continues to be a powerful political force. Even in defeat, he won 74 million votes for president last year, the second-highest total of any candidate in US history. In this episode, I discuss the future of the GOP. What does this mean for the party? The GOP has plunged into an all-out civil war that will rage for years to come.…
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The US president's priorities may be COVID, economic recovery, climate change, and China, but the Middle East problems are still following him — and the US is deeply involved in the region, whether President Biden likes it or not. In this episode, I discuss Biden's priorities in the Middle East.
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Lots of news coming out of Russia these days... But just who is Alexei Navalny, and how important is the threat that he may pose to Vladimir Putin's power in Russia? In this episode of RoozCast I discuss the story of Alexei Navalny in Today's Russia.
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What should Europe do with Washington and Beijing? Double down on strengthening traditional transatlantic relations in hopes of containing China's growing power to set new trade and technology rules, and to bolster support for "Western values" of human rights and individual liberty Engage both newly dysfunctional Washington and ever-more-assertive …
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The United States has vaccinated approximately 3% of its total population, while the UK is nearing a solid 5 percent vaccination rate. In Israel, which has been recognized as a vaccine success story, almost 24% of people have already received at least one dose of a COVID vaccine. But while many countries are able to glimpse the outlines of a post-C…
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In this episode, I discuss Bolivia's election and the challenges faced by newly elected president Luis Arce in governing all Bolivians in a country deeply polarized along political, economic, and racial lines.
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In this episode, I discuss Donald Trump's "America First" foreign policy in the context of trade, conflicts, and international treaties. Has the president delivered?
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The Future of International Trade (Joe Biden's Strategy)
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In this episode, I discuss the central question of international trade and Biden's strategy. I explain how Joe Biden won't move to lower the Trump tariffs immediately or without some concession from Beijing. Escalation of the trade war seems unlikely as Biden attempts to put the frequently combative US-China relationship on a more useful path.…
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Google + Amazon + Apple + Facebook and the 21st-century Tech Cold War with China
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In this episode, I discuss how the US and China are moving into an increasingly zero-sum competition over technologies like 5G and artificial intelligence, in which the big tech companies are major players. If this turns into a 21st-century tech cold war in which tech companies on either side of the Pacific are the main combatants, US companies wil…
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In this episode I discuss, A new survey from the Pew Research Center offering interesting responses to this newest phase of China's rise. This report is based on interviews conducted in nine European countries plus the US, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and Australia.
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Messy Business of the Eastern Mediterranean
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In this episode, I look at the heated dispute between Greece and Turkey over who controls what water in the Eastern Mediterranea. I also discuss what have Greeks and Turks been arguing about all summer and why it matters.
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In this episode, I look at the state of German reunification thirty years later. The reunification has - to a large extend - been difficult to pull off. The Economic and quality of life gap is shrinking, but lingering inequality continues to impact both German society and its politics.
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Donald Trump's Highest-profile Fans Around the World
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In this episode, I look at Trump's highest-profile fans - in ideological support or specific policies and who won't be happy if he loses in November.
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The US Senate Race Matters to the World, Here is Why.
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In this episode, I will be looking at why the US Senate race matters. The 100 member body is currently held by the Republican Party but many individual Senate races are wide open. The results will have a profound impact on only on America but also on US foreign policy and other major issues with global impact. I will look at just a few areas such a…
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In this episode, I discuss the recent EU report about the “lost generation”. And how the report waruns of a potential “lost generation” of migrants, people who enter Europe to build better lives but then find little chance of integrating into society.
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The destiny of Donald Trump will likely remain in the hands of American voters, not their elected officials. And the result of the next election is still more likely to be defined by the Democrats' choice of a presidential candidate, the state of the US economy in 2020, and the enthusiasm that each side's voters feel about the election than by anyt…
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The world has changed since the fall of the Berlin Wall. It's a world that is much more wealthy and free than it was before the wall fell, but it's also a world where nationalism is growing, a new global competition is emerging between the US and China, and freedom is frailer than we thought thirty years ago.…
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Latin America's longest-serving president is now out and seeking asylum in Mexico. Bolivia's passionate leftwing President Evo Morales quit, after weeks of frequently intense protests over his plausible bid to rig last month's presidential elections.
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In this episode, I discuss Google's Quantum Computing breakthrough and what it means for the future of geopolitics.
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All over the world, people are hitting the streets to demand changes from their governments. But one region where dissatisfaction with current leaders seems particularly widespread at the moment is Latin America.
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November 2020, US Election and Cyber Trouble
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It's just over 12 months until the US presidential election. November of 2020. Yes, Mr. Trump has been the president of the United States and the Commander of Chief for almost three years. So, how are we feeling? Well, maybe just a bit on edge? Good, because against a tense geopolitical backdrop, and with an impeachment drama playing out in the Hou…
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In this episode, we'll be talking about President Trump's letter to President Erdogan. An extremely strange, unique, disturbing, funny letter of warning about the consequences of continuing Turkey's invasion of Syria.
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In this episode we look at how Syria is quickly turning into US President Donald Trump's most important foreign policy mistake to date and we are almost three years into his presidency and a year away from the presidential election. It's looking like it might be for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, too. Yes, a big foreign policy error.…
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This week Chinese President Xi Jinping oversaw a huge celebration of that moment - PRC's 70th birthday, highlighting tens of thousands of performers and troops, hundreds of tanks, planes and other military vehicles and even, it seems, a new nuclear weapon that can reach any place on the planet. China is a country that rose from poverty, war, and ex…
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Impeachment Inquiry and US Foreign Policy
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I was a very busy week in Washington. What happened? The impeachment of President Trump has now begun. Investigators will now try to determine whether Mr. Trump attempted to pressure Ukraine's president into providing damaging information on former US vice president (and current presidential candidate) Joe Biden and his son Hunter in order to help …
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In this episode, I discuss the growing friction between governments and big tech companies on the issue of digital currency.
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