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<div class="span index">1</div> <span><a class="" data-remote="true" data-type="html" href="/series/know-what-you-see-with-brian-lowery">Know What You See with Brian Lowery</a></span>
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The “Know What You See” podcast delves into the ways our fundamental need to connect with others profoundly shapes our experience of life. On each episode, through conversations with experts and people just trying to make sense of it all, Brian Lowery takes a journey of exploration—answering and raising questions to deepen our understanding of and appreciation for the often surprising, sometimes perplexing, and now and then transcendent lives we create together.
DHUnplugged Podcast
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Conteúdo fornecido por Horowitz and Dvorak. Todo o conteúdo do podcast, incluindo episódios, gráficos e descrições de podcast, é carregado e fornecido diretamente por Horowitz and Dvorak ou por seu parceiro de plataforma de podcast. Se você acredita que alguém está usando seu trabalho protegido por direitos autorais sem sua permissão, siga o processo descrito aqui https://pt.player.fm/legal.
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467 episódios
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Conteúdo fornecido por Horowitz and Dvorak. Todo o conteúdo do podcast, incluindo episódios, gráficos e descrições de podcast, é carregado e fornecido diretamente por Horowitz and Dvorak ou por seu parceiro de plataforma de podcast. Se você acredita que alguém está usando seu trabalho protegido por direitos autorais sem sua permissão, siga o processo descrito aqui https://pt.player.fm/legal.
DHUnplugged Podcast
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DHUnplugged Podcast
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CPI comes in HOT, PPI not as bad Retail sales – not a happy number for January News on GameStop DOGE is full attack mode (Dismantling) PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts ! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - CPI comes in HOT, PPI not as bad - Retail sales - not a happy number for January - News on GameStop - - DOGE is full attack mode (Dismantling) - The Winner of the ORCL CTP Markets - The call it dumb money - ruling again - More earnings - driving markets - Buying holding tight - tariffs are not worrisome| - Intel parts up for grabs? Retail Sales - According to reports: Consumers sharply curtailed their spending in January, indicating a potential weakening in economic growth ahead, according to a Commerce Department report last Friday. - Retail sales slipped 0.9% for the month from an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in December, even worse than the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.2% decline. The sales totals are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation for a month in which prices rose 0.5%. - Excluding autos, prices fell 0.4%, also well off the consensus forecast for a 0.3% increase. - A "control" measure that strips out several nonessential categories and figures directly into calculations for gross domestic product fell 0.8% after an upwardly revised increase of 0.8%. Other Economics - In other economic news Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that import prices accelerated 0.3% in January, in line with expectations for the largest one-month move since April 2024. On a year-over-year basis, import prices increased 1.9%. - Fuel prices increased 3.2% on the month, also the biggest gain since April 2024. Food, feed and beverage costs rose 0.2% following a 3% surge in December. - Export prices also increased, rising 1.3%. Back to Work - President Trump was very vocal about people who work from home. Said they they are really not working - “I happen to be a believer that you have to go to work. I don’t think you can work from home. - “Nobody’s going to work from home, they’re going to be going out, they’re gonna play tennis, they’re gonna play golf. They’re gonna do a lot of things—they’re not working.” --- Question: Doesn't President Trump work from home? -----JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon scorned calls from some employees to soften the bank's five-day return-to-office policy in an animated town hall meeting last week, according to a recording reviewed by Reuters. - Employees at the largest U.S. bank have complained on internal message boards and chats about losing hybrid working arrangements, and one group launched an online petition urging Dimon to reconsider. Unions - NOPE - Amazon workers at a facility near Raleigh, North Carolina, overwhelmingly voted against unionizing on Saturday. - Of the 3,276 ballots cast, there were 2,447 votes opposing the union and 829 in favor, according to Carolina Amazonians United for Solidarity and Empowerment (CAUSE), the group seeking to represent workers. The results still need to be certified by the National Labor Relations Board. China - Tariffs of their own - China's finance ministry said Tuesday it will impose 15% tariffs on coal and liquified natural gas imports from the U.S. and 10% duties on crude oil, farm equipment and certain cars, starting Feb. 10. - The tariffs announcement comes as the additional 10% U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports came into effect on Tuesday stateside. Speaking of Tariffs Reciprocal Tariffs - what are they? . Essentially, it's a "tit-for-tat" approach to trade: if Country A charges a 10% tariff on goods from Country B, then Country B will impose a 10% tariff on goods from Country A - President Trump recently signed a memorandum directing his administration to impose reciprocal tariffs on U.S. trading partners. This means the U.S. will levy tariffs on imports from countries that have higher tariffs on American goods. The goal is to create a "level playing field" and address trade imbalances. - Wouldn't it be better of all removed tariffs rather than trying to one-up all the time? In Response - Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a speech at a symposium with prominent entrepreneurs on Monday, according to state media Xinhua, signaling a shift toward renewed support for the private sector. - The meeting sends a "very clear signal of top-level support" to the private sector entrepreneurs - The meeting could mark "a symbolic turning point for Chinese tech sector after years of heightened scrutiny," said Lynn Song, chief economist at LNG, emphasizing the timing of this meeting underscored Beijing's urgency to cheer up the private sector amid economic malaise and external tariff risks. Musk and DOGE - Aides to Elon Musk charged with running the U.S. government human resources agency have locked career civil servants out of computer systems that contain the personal data of millions of federal employees, according to two agency officals. -"We have no visibility into what they are doing with the computer and data systems," one of the officials said. "That is creating great concern. There is no oversight. It creates real cybersecurity and hacking implications." - The government efficiency team have been given access to the U.S. Treasury Department’s payment system - - The system sends out more than $6 trillion per year in payments on behalf of federal agencies and contains the personal information of millions of Americans who receive Social Security payments, tax refunds and other monies from the government. - AND, when there is pushback......Elon Musk has called to impeach a federal judge in New York, Paul Engelmayer, over an order that temporarily restricts the tech centi-billionaire and his DOGE team from accessing U.S. Department of Treasury payment systems and sensitive data. Intel - Intel's rivals Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Broadcom are each eyeing potential deals that would break the U.S. chipmaking icon in two, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday, citing people familiar with the matter. ONWARD! - Impressive earnings: - Luxury carmaker Ferrari on Tuesday reported a significant upswing in full-year net profit, citing a strong product mix and growing demand for personalization. - Ferrari posted net profit of 1.53 billion euros ($1.58 billion) for the full-year 2024 period, reflecting a 21% increase from the previous year. Coinbase Earnings - Coinbase Thursday reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and its biggest quarterly revenue in three years, strengthened by a raging postelection rally that pushed crypto prices to new high after new high at the end of last year. ( Earnings per share : $4.68 vs. $1.81 expected, Revenue: $2.27 billion vs. $1.88 billion expected) - Total trading volume was $439 billion, up 185% year-over-year. Consumer trading volume rose 224% from the same period a year ago while institutional trading volume increased 176%. Airbnb - The online rental platform posted earnings of 73 cents per share on $2.48 billion in revenue. That topped analyst estimates of 58 cents per share of earnings and $2.42 billion in revenue, according to LSEG. - Revenue increased 12% from a year ago. - Shares up 14% on the dy (best one day performance for the stock EVER!) CVS - The company issued a full-year 2025 adjusted earnings outlook of $5.75 to $6 per share, which was in line with Wall Street's expectations. -- But CVS did not provide a revenue forecast for the year. - Earnings per share: $1.19 per share adjusted vs. 93 cents per share expected - Revenue: $97.71 billion vs. $97.19 billion expected - Still a big concern moving forward as company relies heavily on Medicare/Medicare Advantage - could see some price negotiations by the government OOOH - This is amazing! (NOT) - Last week, video game retailer turned meme stock GameStop is considering investing in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. - GameStop is exploring investments in alternative asset classes, including crypto and in particular bitcoin, three sources said. Shares of GameStop soared as much as 20% in extended trading following the news. - Comments show that they are reviving this from their 2022 playbook (that they did not follow through on) Zelle for the WIN! - Zelle is it safe? (What movie is that from?) - The firm said Wednesday that its user base jumped 12% to 151 million accounts in 2024, and that the total dollars sent on the platform jumped 27% from the year earlier. - Growth is being driven as bank customers increasingly use Zelle instead of cash or checks, and as small businesses adopt the payment option. Thoughts on This? - President Donald Trump is set Monday to sign an executive order directing the Department of Justice to pause enforcing a law that prohibits American companies to bribe officials of foreign governments. - The pause will be implemented to examine whether the law puts U.S. businesses at an economic disadvantage to foreign competitors. - The Bloomberg news service first reported the planned executive order related to the Foreign Corrupt Practice Act. What Do We Make of This? - ARM has begun recruiting from its own customers and competing against them for deals as it pushes toward selling its own chips, according to people familiar with the matter and a document viewed by Reuters. - The UK-based company has sought to recruit executives from licensees, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. And Arm is competing against Qualcomm, one of its largest customers, to sell data center CPUs to Meta Platforms - Accorind to reports: The tech provider's moves to build out its own chip business could upend an industry that has long viewed the company as a neutral player rather than a competitor, by forcing companies who rely on Arm technology to consider whether they will end up competing against the firm for business. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? The Winner for ORACLE (ORCL) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirt! FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter…
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DHUnplugged Podcast
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1 DHUnplugged #750: President Miyagi 1:05:58
1:05:58
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Wax off Wax On – Waffling – Mr. Miyagi President? Government Cuts – Lots of Bye-Bye Notes. Economics and the latest employment report. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts ! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Wax off Wax On - Waffling - Mr. Miyagi President? - Government Cuts - Lots of Bye-Bye Notes - Economics are in.... People happy and not happy - Musk - let's talk about this .... - Praying for the turtles... Markets - Lots of Tumult - confusion but still a retail bid - Inflation numbers are not worrying (to some) - Employment Report - CPI Due this week - Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum The Karate Kid: Danielson - Wax On Wax off - Trump 2.0: President Miyagi: tariffs on, tariffs off (used to be called waffling) - Mexico and Canada Tarrifs are postponed for a month after "phone calls" from Trudeau and Sheinbaum - China 10% tariffs and now China retaliates --- Supposedly there is a call set up between Trump and XI in the next few days Economics - ADP: Private sector companies added more jobs than expected in January -- Companies created a net 183,000 jobs on the month, slightly more than the 176,000 in December ---Pay for workers who stayed in their jobs grew at a 4.7% annual rate - BLS Payrolls: 143k Added, (shy of estimates) ---- URate 4% ----Avg Hourly Earnings kick up to 0.5% MoM - - - UMICH for Feb - 67.8 (DOWN from 70.1 - ISM Serices 52.8, down slightly from prior month Color on Confidence numbers - Lots of concern over the potential for inflation in the UMich report --- Biggest issue is the worry about the tariffs and how they may impact prices Earnings: - The S&P 500 is reporting a 13.2% year-over-year earnings growth rate for Q4 2024, which is the highest growth rate reported in three years - 77% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings above estimates, which is equal to the 5-year average but above the 10-year average - The Financials, Communication Services, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Utilities sectors are reporting double-digit earnings growth - Starting to seeing some issues in the BIG tech sector - that is why all of a sudden we are also seeing layoffs - expense cutting (although no cuts to cap ex at this point) Earnings - Amazon prelim Q4 $1.86 vs $1.49 FactSet Consensus; revs $187.79 mln vs $187.31 bln FactSet Consensus - AWS segment sales rose 18.9% yr/yr to $28.79 bln - Q4 operating income of $21.2 bln vs prior guidance of $16-20 bln; guides to Q1 operating income of $14-18 bln - Amazon sees Q1 revs $151.0-155.5 bln vs $158.56 bln FactSet Consensus ----Amazon expects $100 billion of capex in 2025 on 'once-in-a-lifetime' AI opportunity More Earnings - Alphabet shares fell more than 9% in after-hours trading Tuesday after the company reported fourth-quarter results that missed on revenue expectations and announced more artificial intelligence investments. - Earnings per share for the Google parent company beat analysts' estimates by two cents. - Revenue: $96.47 billion vs. $96.56 billion expected by LSEG - Earnings per share: $2.15 vs. $2.13 expected by LSEG Even More Earnings - Advanced Micro Devices reported fourth-quarter results on Tuesday that beat Wall Street expectations for sales and earnings, but the stock fell about 5% in extended trading as the company missed estimates in its key data center segment. - Stock kept of falling in the days after too... - Earnings per share : $1.09, adjusted, versus $1.08 expected - Revenue : $7.66 billion versus $7.53 billion --- Clearly this company was way ahead of itself and proposing that they had AI chips that were potentially competitive to NVDA - BUT NOT! Spotify - Stock moved up nicely last week after a really good earnings report - Shares climbed 10% Tuesday after the music streaming company recorded its first full year of profitability - Revenue: 4.24 billion euros vs. 4.19 billion euros expected by LSEG - Earnings per share: 1.76 euros vs.1.99 euros expected from LSEG - MAUs (monthly active users) : 675 million vs. 664.3 million expected by StreetAccount - The Luxembourg-based company reported a 40% growth year-over-year for gross profit, rising 10% from the previous quarter. Operating income came in at 477 million euros, slightly below guidance. - $189 back in the start of 2024 - Now.... Over $600 Mo' Money Spend - Softbank now investing upwards of $40B into OpenAI - now worth $300B -- Remember, you keep adding money and your money from initial adds is worth more... Postal Service Suspended - USPS announced last week that it would stop accepting parcels from China and Hong Kong, until futher notice. ---- That smacked companies in China that do bug retail here in US (PDD, TEMU etc) - The U.S. Postal Service said Wednesday it will resume accepting inbound mail and packages from China and Hong Kong, just hours after it suspended service from those regions. - "The USPS and Customs and Border Protection are working closely together to implement an efficient collection mechanism for the new China tariffs to ensure the least disruption to package delivery," the agency wrote in a notice posted to its website. Sovereign Wealth Fund? - A sovereign wealth fund (SWF) is a state-owned investment fund that manages a country's financial assets - These funds are typically derived from surplus revenues from commodity exports (like oil and gas), foreign exchange reserves, or budget surpluses - The United States is considering establishing its own SWF. President Trump signed an executive order directing the Treasury and Commerce departments to develop a plan for creating such a fund . - The proposed U.S. SWF aims to promote fiscal sustainability, lessen the tax burden on American families and small businesses, and establish economic security for future generations - AND they are talking about somehow doing a strategic reserve of Bitcoin.... WTF? Speaking of Bitcoin - BIG NEWS - Microstrategy is changing its name to .... Strategy US Steel Saga - Seems tht there is little hope of Nippon Steel buying US Steel - HOWEVER, Nippon Steel is going to invest "heavily" in US Steel now.... (WHY - hopes that one day this will get them control of the company and another administration will then allow the purchase for good behavior?) - MORE : U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday told reporters that he planned to announce new 25% tariffs on Monday, targeting imports of steel and aluminum. - - The proposed levies would be in addition to existing duties. No timeline for implementation was specified at this time. Bil Ackman - Not Quiet anymore - Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman revealed Friday that he has built a significant stake in Uber , saying the stock is still trading at a “massive” discount. - In a post on X, the hedge fund manager said his fund began buying Uber shares in early January and has amassed 30.3 million shares, worth $2.3 billion based on the stock’s current level around $75 per share. - “We believe that Uber is one of the best managed and highest quality businesses in the world,” Ackman said in the post. “Remarkably, it can still be purchased at a massive discount to its intrinsic value. This favorable combination of attributes is extremely rare, particularly for a large cap company.” Of interest... - A blind man is raising concerns about Indiana gun laws after he was allowed to get a license to carry a handgun. - Terry Sutherland told I-Team 8 he got his permit to prove a point and to try to spark conversations about reasonable gun legislation. - Sutherland was using his sight seeing stick when he went to the City County Building to get fingerprinted for the permit. - He said he spoke with several people who knew that he was blind. Fun Real Estate Investing - President Donald Trump on Tuesday evening said the United States "will take over the Gaza Strip," and "we'll own it." - Trump said that all Palestinians currently living in Gaza — nearly 2 million people — should leave the territory and be placed in other countries in the Middle East, among them Jordan and Egypt. - He said the U.S. could then re-develop Gaza, which has been decimated during a war with Israel. Save the Turtles - In a recent post on the social media platform Truth Social, President Trump stated he will be signing an executive order to end "the ridiculous Biden push for Paper Straws." Not EggCiting - The Waffle House restaurant chain is putting a 50 cent per egg surcharge in place temporarily due to the biggest bird flu outbreak in a decade. - The average price per dozen eggs nationwide hit $4.15 in December. That's not quite as high as the $4.82 record set two years ago, but the Agriculture Department predicts egg prices are going to soar another 20% this year. In Closing - Consumer Financial Protection Bureau employees were told Sunday to work remotely because their Washington, D.C., headquarters would be closed through Feb. 14, according to a memo obtained by CNBC. - The memo, from CFPB Chief Operating Officer Adam Martinez, follows an email sent Saturday from newly installed acting CFPB director Russell Vought which instructed staff to suspend nearly all activities of the regulator, including supervising financial firms. - The Trump administration has ordered the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to stop nearly all its work, effectively shutting down an agency that was created to protect consumers after the 2008 financial crisis and subprime mortgage-lending scandal. - Russell Vought, the newly installed director of the Office of Management and Budget, directed the CFPB, in a Saturday night email confirmed by The Associated Press, to stop work on proposed rules, to suspend the effective dates on any rules that were finalized but not yet effective, and to stop investigative work and not begin any new investigations. The agency has been a target of conservatives since President Barack Obama pushed to include it in the 2010 financial reform legislation that followed the 2007-2008 financial Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? The Winner for ORACLE (ORCL) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter…
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1 DHUnplugged #739: Global Upheaval (JK) 1:02:59
1:02:59
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January is in the books – interesting outcome. Let’s work at Costco – wow! Fed is out with their rate plan – not confident in the future Fed Workers getting buyouts PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts ! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - January is in the books - interesting outcome - Let's work at Costco - wow! - Fed is out with their rate plan - not confident in the future - Fed Workers getting buyouts - The latest from the Just Kidding department... Markets - Investors Betting Trump will soften his stance on Tariffs - Trump playing chicken on weekends that other countries will bend - Some recovery after last Monday's beating - But the questions is - how long until global upheaval with all of these threats and bashing? Tariffs - Threats to Canada and Mexico - 25% across the board on Canada and Mexico - 10% in China - Blaming immigration, drugs and trade imbalance --- Oil could become an issue with Canada as they send us cheaper (dirty crude) - but several regions could see higher prices by 20% if these tariffs stick - After the close - Trump said at the White House Friday he would 'absolutely' put tariffs on the nation's EU allies. - 'You want the truthful answer or should I give you a political answer?' Trump said when asked about it – underlying his commitment to the issue. He said the tariffs on the EU would be 'very substantial,' without providing details. - Markets closed in the red Friday on this tidbit -------- Follow up - futures and markets off considerably before the open on Monday. 2%+ across the board. Oil UP. -------THEN - A PHONE CALL WITH MEXICO! PAUSE ON RATES FOR A MONTH (10am news) Bitcoin <$97,000 over the weekend, then popped back up -- Again is this supposed to be a alt asset class or it is simply a risk asset now? Musk has the keys - The Trump administration has approved plans to grant Treasury officials affiliated with Elon Musk’s team access to the federal system that handles trillions of dollars in payments, according to two people familiar with the situation. - Senator Warren is apoplectic Tesla also not thrilled - CFO "Over the years we've tried to localize our supply chain in every market, but we are still reliant on parts from across the world for all our businesses," Taneja said. He said the "imposition of tariffs" would "have an impact on our business and profitability." --- Oh and Tesla's earnings were uninspiring . Big drop in sales and profitability ---- HOWEVER - Musk and team promised that a cheaper car will be coming this year and that left the carrot dangling for investors General market update for January - Internal notes - The U.S. markets finished the month on a downturn as news of upcoming tariffs triggered renewed market concerns. January proved to be a volatile month, marked by a record-high closing for the S&P 500®, followed by a steep decline after the release of a new AI model from China caused global turbulence. Despite this, robust earnings reports and strong consumer spending helped the S&P 500 end the month with a 3% gain. - Mid-cap and small-cap stocks outshone their larger counterparts, with the S&P MidCap 400® and S&P SmallCap 600® rising 4% and 3%, respectively. Investors remained cautious due to ongoing uncertainties about Federal Reserve rate cuts and inflation. - Most sectors saw gains in January, with Communication Services, Health Care, and Financials leading the charge. Information Technology was the sole underperformer, declining 3% due to AI-related challenges. - In January, most sectors experienced gains, with Communication Services, Health Care, and Financials at the forefront. The only sector to underperform was Information Technology, which declined by 3% due to challenges related to artificial intelligence. - International stocks outshone their US counterparts, with notable performances from Latin America and Europe. Additionally, value stocks outpaced growth stocks, aligning well with our client positioning strategy. DONATIONS - VERY POOR START TO THE YEAR Costco - Why Isn't everyone working there? - Retailer Costco Wholesale will increase pay for most of its hourly U.S. store workers to more than $30, according to a memo sent to employees this week. - The company will increase hourly pay for its top of the scale employees over the next three years, with the pay rising by $1 to $30.20 in the first year and an extra $1 each in the subsequent two years - THAT IS MORE THAN $60,000 per year! Earnings - Microsoft’s results for the fiscal second quarter exceeded Wall Street consensus, but revenue guidance for the current quarter did not. - The Azure cloud business is dealing with execution challenges and ongoing supply shortages. - But Microsoft touted the growth of its artificial intelligence business, which is doing $13 billion in annualized revenue. - Earnings per share: $3.23 vs. $3.11 expected - Revenue: $69.63 billion vs. $68.78 billion expected - Stock was down 5% on the news... Intel - Intel issued disappointing quarterly guidance on Thursday, but reported earnings and revenue that topped estimates. ----- Here's how the company did in the fourth quarter compared with LSEG estimates: - Earnings per share: 13 cents adjusted vs. 12 cents expected - Revenue: $14.26 billion vs. $13.81 billion expected - Shares at the lowest point in price in the range from July 2024 - not looking any better Apple Earnings - China sales dropped 11% on an annual basis - 1/2 the decline was due to inventory issues - It was the worst quarter by growth rate since the December quarter a year ago, and marks the sixth straight quarter of declines in Apple’s third-largest region by revenue. - Cook tried to make up for the poor performance of the company overall by pointing to stimulus that could benefit Apple's products - Also blaming that Apple Intelligence is absent in China (I am still wondering what this does) ---- Isn't he forgetting that Apple can be used as a leverage point by China in the impending trade war? Boeing Earnings - Boeing posted a nearly $4 billion loss for the fourth quarter. - The company has taken charges that span its defense and commercial airplane units. - CEO Kelly Ortberg said Boeing is making progress on stabilizing the manufacturer. Looking back - on the DeepSeek (CheapSeek) news - Stocks took a beating last Monday - NVDA and other chip players, Nuclear Energy and tech in general - Now, as expected, there is a twist to the story - the narrative machine is hard at work ---- Suspicion that the stole LLMs and other tech from possibly APIs and then built on top of that ------ Could it be that it is a Chinese spy! (Navy banned use on its vessels) -- Even is dangerous - China’s DeepSeek AI is full of misinformation and can be tricked into generating bomb instructions, researchers warn ---- Some stocks made a nice comeback - SMR and other energy plays - NVDA still suffering. (down ~ 20% from high and now under its 200 DMA) Something we have been waiting for - The Food and Drug Administration on Thursday approved Vertex Pharmaceuticals' non-opioid painkiller pill, a new alternative for pain relief that comes without the risk of addiction. - Vertex is now the first drugmaker in decades to gain U.S. approval for a new type of pain medicine. - Vertex's drug is specifically approved for the treatment of moderate-to-severe acute pain, which is usually caused by injury, surgery, illness, trauma or painful medical procedures and likely eases with time. -- VRTX moved up nicely after this news - TAM > 80 million patients in USA ($1 billion in annual sales potential) Thank you - Goodbye - The Trump administration is offering millions of federal workers the option to accept buyouts through a government-wide "deferred resignation" program if they resign by Feb. 6. - Those who accept the offer will receive pay and benefits through Sept. 30, according to a draft email obtained Tuesday by NBC News. - The emails will be started to be sent today, NBC reported. - The White House expects up to 10% of federal employees to take the buyout, a senior administration official told NBC on condition of anonymity. - Doesn't this leave holes? The Fed - The Federal Reserve held its key interest rate in check Wednesday, reversing a recent trend of easing policy as it examines what is likely to be a bumpy political and economic landscape ahead. - "The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid," the new language read. "Inflation remains somewhat elevated." - Seemed much less confident about their view on the trajectory about inflation ---NOTE - On next Week's TDI Podcast - Fed Insider Danielle Dimartino Booth with be the guest! Pickleball! - Major League Pickleball is on the brink of profitability and is now looking to expand, a league source tells CNBC. - The MLP, which started in 2021, is targeting profitability at the league level by the fourth quarter of this year, according to the source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss nonpublic matters. - For the first time in two years, the league is offering investors the opportunity to get in on America's fastest-growing sport with the sale of up to two expansion franchises, the source said. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING - ORACLE (ORCL) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter…
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1 DHUnplugged #738: Thread Pull DeepSh*t 1:02:49
1:02:49
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The Impact of Flagrant Braggadociousness Hard rug pull? Tariffs – giving out like candy TikTok Saga continues – with a twist PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts ! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - The Impact of Flagrant Braggadociousness - Hard rug pull? - Tariffs - giving out like candy - TikTok Saga continues - with a twist Markets - Deflating Stocks - Thread Pull (Before the rug pull) - Monday Mayhem - S&P 500 down 1.9%, Equal Weighted down 0.35% - DEEPSeek - Tuesday - plenty of buyers stepping in .... - Staples, Banks are in favor all of a sudden... ANNOUNCING a New CTP! $600 Billion Lost Monday - for one company! BIGGEST one day drop ever! Monday Markets - News of a cheap AI model (program/app) from China hit the tape and it pulled the loose string and tech / markets felll apart. - DeepSeek , has more downloads that ChatCPT - DeepSeek's latest app comes just days after Mr. Trump announced a new $500 billion venture with ChatGPT maker OpenAI, Softbank and Oracle, dubbed Stargate, which he touted as ensuring "the future of technology" in the U.S. (Which is higher than anyone could calulate as the actual value- more like $60-$80 billion) - ORCL -13%, NVDA -17%, AMD -7%, ASML - 8%. Nuke power companies getting squashed - NASDAQ 100 down 3.2% - DeepSeek is also catching investors off guard because of the low development costs for its AI app, which Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives pegged at only $6 million . By comparison, OpenAI, Google and other major U.S. companies are on track to invest a total of roughly $1 trillion in AI over the coming years, according to Goldman Sachs. - FWIW - DeepSeek excels in technical tasks like coding and reasoning, while ChatGPT is better for creative writing and conversational tasks - Founder Liang, who had previously focused on applying AI to investing, had bought a "stockpile of Nvidia A100 chips," a type of tech that is now banned from export to China. Those chips became the basis of DeepSeek, an MIT publication reported. - DeepSeek is looking to differentiate from its competitors with its reasoning capabilities, meaning that before delivering the final answer, the model first generates a “chain of thought” to enhance the accuracy of its responses. - Question: Will this shed reality on the AI bubble or just a bump in the road? ---- Lesson : As an investor, be careful of the current administration's hype - we saw this last time and many of the "deals" never got done fully or at all. ---- In addition, DJIA was flying high as staples and other ramping. HD, CRM, JNJ - 10Yr Yield drops to 4.52% Hard Rug Pull - Hard rug pull : The developers have no intention of completing the project and plan to scam investors from the start In the End... - The narrative with switch... Was: How great all of this as capital spend is going to be great! - Will morph to: No need for capital spend therefore companies will have the benefit of not spending the money! - The usual Wall Street Machine --- Update: That has already started in the background. The idea that this is great as there is more competition AND a layer has been built that can support faster and cheaper build out of this AI ..... One More Thing - Wang (CEO of ScaleAI) said DeepSeek actually has more H100 chips from Nvidia than expected — about 50,000 of them. - At $25,000 a piece that is $1.25 billion. Sooooooo how is it that it took only $6 million to build.. Big Cuts - The Trump administration is offering millions of federal workers the option to accept buyouts through a government-wide "deferred resignation" program if they resign by Feb. 6. - Those who accept the offer will receive pay and benefits through Sept. 30, according to a draft email obtained Tuesday by NBC News. Colombia - Tariff Test - President Donald Trump's newly announced tariffs on goods from Colombia could drive up the price of some items Americans buy every day. - Trump said in a social media post Sunday that he would immediately impose a blanket 25% tariff on all goods coming into the U.S. from Colombia, among other sanctions. The announcement came after Colombia rebuffed a U.S. military flight of deported migrants. - Trump also said that the tariffs would soar to 50% in a week. ---- Colombia yileds, takes in the migrants - coffee drinkers should rejoice! Thought Moment - Will some countries look at these "Negotiating tariffs " as ways to negotiate? - Less fear - as now they know as it has been telegraphed that they are only really for negotiating? TikTok Saga - Perplexity AI on Sunday revised the merger proposal it had submitted to TikTok parent ByteDance. - The proposal, which would create a new entity combining Perplexity and TikTok U.S., would now also allow for the U.S. government to own up to 50% of the new company upon a future IPO, CNBC has learned. - All of a sudden we are going to have state-owned enterprises. (WTF?) Change of Tune - Clearly this is all political at this point - The CIA has shifted its stance about the origin of the virus that causes Covid-19, NBC News reported on Saturday. - The intelligence agency now believes that the coronavirus escaped from a Chinese lab, a shift from its previous stance, in which it did not take a position. - "CIA assesses with low confidence that a research-related origin of the COVID-19 pandemic is more likely than a natural origin based on the available body of reporting," Diet Drugs - Still Good - Shares of Novo Nordisk jumped Friday after the Danish pharmaceutical giant reported positive early-stage results for its once weekly amycretin obesity drug. - The trial showed average weight reduction of 22% in obese and overweight patients after 36 weeks. - The study was conducted on 125 overweight or obese patients and the most common side effects were gastrointestinal. - Amycretin targets the same gut hormone that Wegovy mimics, known as GLP-1, as well as a pancreas hormone called amylin that affects hunger. - Sooooo, how is this different? -- NOW - The Food and Drug Administration approved Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic for patients with both chronic kidney disease and diabetes, expanding the use of the wildly popular injection in the U.S. - What next? Help for hair growth or make you taller.... Airline - Not So High Flying - Insta-thought - Airlines are doing better because of weight loss medicine - people are lighter so less fuel used for flights - Earnings: The carrier forecast an adjusted loss per share of 20 cents to 40 cents for the first three months of 2025 based on current demand trends and fuel-price forecast, a wider loss than the 4 cents analysts were expecting, according to LSEG. Tech Earnings - Starts this week with Microsoft, IBM, META, Intel and a few others. - The week after it will pick up pretty good. Politics This Week - A Republican House member introduced a resolution Thursday to amend the U.S. Constitution in order to allow President Donald Trump — and any other future president — to be elected to a third term in the White House. - Trump "has proven himself to be the only figure in modern history capable of reversing our nation's decay and restoring America to greatness, and he must be given the time necessary to accomplish that goal," said Rep. Andy Ogles, the Tennessee lawmaker who introduced the resolution. - Remind everyone again about what it takes to do a constitutional amendment???? - Trump signs executive order to unclassified files for MLK, JFK, RJK. Around the World - South Korea's economy expanded 1.2% year on year in the fourth quarter, marking its slowest expansion since the second quarter of 2023. - Advance figures showed the figure missed the 1.4% expansion expected by economists polled by Reuters, and the growth was also softer compared with the 1.5% rise seen in the third quarter of 2024. Football? - Congrats to Kansas City and Philadelphia - Who are our favorites? - KC is 1.5 point favorite - Will Kelce propose to Swift if the win? (Will he have to sign pre-nup?) IF interested: - Beyoncé (US$760 million) ... - Dr. Dre (US$800 million) ... - Madonna (US$850 million) ... - Bruce Springsteen (US$1.2 Billion) ... - Selena Gomez (US$1.3 Billion) ... - Rihanna (US$1.4 Billion) ... - Taylor Swift (US$1.6 Billion) ... - Jay-Z (US$2.5 Billion) Crypto - Bitcoin was below $100k on Monday as risk assets were not in favor - All other coins also drop... Egg Prices - ALERT - High in Jan 2023 - $4.23 - Dropped to $2.06 in September 2023 - Current is $4.14 Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING - ORACLE (ORCL) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter…
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1 DHUnplugged #737: Spirited Animals 1:04:20
1:04:20
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Trump-o-Nomics here we come. MemeCoins making s comeback – then fizzling. Pardons and Executive orders are flying. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts ! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter *** California Clean up - Some thoughts and companies... **** Warm-Up - New President - New Leadership - Pardons flying....Even preemptive ones - Another short-seller is out of biz... - Talking bout animal spirits being unlocked as President Trump take office Markets - Coins - on fire (then pull back) - Markets - Moving after last week's CPI print - MemeCoins making a comeback - Pelosi moving stocks ** Need a new symbol for the 1st CTP for 2025 PSA - Quick note - Next week's guest on TDI Podcast - Howard Lindzon - Founder of StockTwits - Follow JCD and AH on Twitter - Listen to No Agenda every week - double the pleasure on Thursdays and Sundays at 2P (ET) Inauguration - Any major takeaways? - Trump wearing a purple tie - that does not seem like an accident - Significant number of executive orders First orders of business--- Energy is key area along with DEI, TWO Genders (only), Temporary pause on China tariffs, National emergency at borders, ending EV mandates - National emergency: Borger, energy - "That national energy emergency will unlock a variety of different authorities that will enable our nation to quickly build again, to produce more natural resources, to create jobs, to create prosperity and to strengthen our nation's national security" - Opening up Alaska: "Alaska is so key for our national security, given its geostrategic location, and it's a crucial place from which we could export LNG not only to other parts of the United States, but to our friends and allies in the Asia Pacific region" - DEI -could now be DOA - Withdrawing from Paris clime agreement - - - The incoming administration plans to review and potentially end what the official described as "discriminatory programs," including environmental justice grants and diversity training initiatives. --- Retaking Panama Canal and plant a flag on Mars -- Do we want to discuss that President Trump did not put his hand on the bible as he was being sworn in? ----EXTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE: For this purpose, we are establishing the external revenue service to collect all tariffs, duties and revenues. It will be massive amounts of money pouring into our treasury coming from foreign sources, the American dream will soon be back and thriving like never before to restore competence and effectiveness to our federal government - Vivek Ramaswamy is out as Elon Musk’s co-leader as he is running for Governor of Ohio Pre-Emtiove Pardons - President Joe Biden on Monday issued preemptive pardons for several family members, citing concerns that they will be targeted by “baseless and politically motivated investigations.” - Biden pardoned his brother, James Biden; James’ wife, Sara Jones Biden; his younger sister, Valerie Biden Owens; Owens’ husband, John Owens; and his other brother, Francis Biden. - “The issuance of these pardons should not be mistaken as an acknowledgment that they engaged in any wrongdoing, nor should acceptance be misconstrued as an admission of guilt for any offense,” Biden said in a press release. --- AND January 6th "Hostages" pardoned Tariffs - Seems that the squeeze is on - 25% on Mexico (MexAmerica) and Canada (CanAmerica) starting Feb 1st. - HOT FLASH - 10% on China starting Feb 1 Musk - Feelings hurt? - Removing of EV mandates - not in his best interest.. Right? - Could it be a swap for more lucrative defense and space contracts? TikTok - Goes dark for a little while over he weekend (Apple, Google remove app and offline on web) - Several players are interested in buying the US assets - Kevin O'Leary, Elon Musk --- Latest to throw their hat in the ring - Perplexity AI- merger --- Perplexity is backed by Amazon/Bezos (amongst others) -- Trump wants to try to give them more time to work things out.... (TikTik CEO attended Inaugural ball) Netflix - POW! (Disclosure- H&C Clients own NFLX) - Q4 global streaming paid net adds were +18.91 mln vs prior guidance of "higher than Q3's +5.07 mln." Co notes Q4 was the biggest quarter of net adds in company history. - Q4 operating margin came in at 22.2% vs 21.6% prior guidance primarily due to higher-than-forecasted revenue; guides to Q1 operating margin of 28.2%. - Co says revenue was slightly above forecast despite the strengthening of the US dollar vs. most currencies as membership growth and ad sales outpaced the co's forecast. California Fire Clean up - Companies that may benefit - Clear: United Rentals (URI), Caterpillar (CAT) - Fire Retardant Paint 3M (MMM) - Homebuilder - most known in LA area KB Hones (KBH) Earnings - Target Earnings (not great - not getting much better) --Target raised its fourth-quarter sales forecast Thursday after more consumers turned to its stores and website for holiday shopping — particularly on days known for deep discounts. -- The big-box retailer now expects comparable sales in the fiscal fourth quarter to grow by about 1.5%. That's better than its most recent outlook -- Yet the Minneapolis-based discounter did not lift its profit outlook — an indication that deals motivated shoppers. Target anticipates fourth-quarter earnings per share will range from $1.85 to $2.45 and full-year earnings per share will be between $8.30 and $8.90. CPI - CPI came mostly as expected or a little hottr than expected - HOWEVER, Core CPI on MoM and YoY were a little better and that sent market flying - Stocks had a great week and Bond yields fell - Seemed a little much considering all of the other data that we have seen Crypto - Bitcoin hits a new high over the weekend, Ripple on the move - New MEMECoins - Trump and Melania Coins are out there - No perceived value, but Trump coin move up sharply into the inauguration -- Launched ~ 1/17/2025 $TRUMP - up 560% through the inauguration (2 days) - topped out at $10B market cap (After the Inauguration dropped 30%) --- OH, of you want, the $MELIANA con is also available now. (Down 16% from inception to after the inauguration) Saying goodbye to Hindenburg Research - Founder Nate Anderson announced that the firm is closing - He outed Adani in India as well as Nikola, Ichan and other major financial "schemes" - The most recent report they published was on Carvana - But seems that they have recently reported their last name to the SEC - some pozi scheme that will eventually come out... Bank Earnings Round Up - We discussed, but generally good, better margins and investent income solid - JPM boosts buybacks - even though Dimon says stock is expensive. - Bank of America on Thursday posted results that topped expectations for profit and revenue on better-than-expected investment banking and interest income. (Investment banking fees surged 44%) - Morgan Stanley - The bank said that quarterly profit more than doubled to $3.71 billion, or $2.22 a share, from a year earlier, when it had a pair of regulatory charges. More Burning Food - Genesis Monita, 19, sued Bill Miller Bar-B-Q Enterprises in October 2023 after she had been served sauce that gave her a second-degree burn earlier in the year. - Took the breakfast taco out of the bag, sauce fell on her leg and got 2nd degree burns. - How much sauce was on that taco? - More than $25,000 was paid to her for medical expenses following her injury and $900,000 was for past and future mental anguish, physical pain and impairment. - The restaurant franchise was found to be "grossly negligent" by the jury, awarding Monita $1.9 million in punitive damages. Pelosi - Still got it! - TEM (+31%) early strength appears to have evolved into a price squeeze. Initial strength triggered by Nancy Pelosi disclosure of $100K Call option purchase. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter…
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1 DHUnplugged #736: The One-Two Punch 1:06:23
1:06:23
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People are catching on – Fed has no clue Investors are nervous – lots of intraday volatility Correction – could it be? USA- Going DEEPER into debt DOGE – already making excuses PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts ! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - People are catching on - Fed has no clue - Investors are nervous - lots of intraday volatility - Correction - could it be? - USA- Going DEEPER into debt - DOGE - already making excuses - Next Monday - Market Holiday and Inauguration day Markets - No happy - inflation and jobs (A 1-2 Punch for markets) - CPI and PPI this week - make it or break it? - Rates hitting key resistance - Oil spikes - multi-month high All of a sudden.. - Microsoft, Facebook and other companies are cutting staff again - Talk of tough year ahead... What is up? If they don't cooperate? - Cut their pay! - China is set to slash pay for staff at its top three financial regulators, including the central bank, by about half, as part of a regulatory revamp unveiled in 2023 to bring their salaries in line with other civil servants - Starting from this month, staff at the People's Bank of China (PBOC), National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) and China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) will see total income slashed by about half. More China - Pull Forward - China’s trade data in December beat expectations by a large margin, with exporters continuing to frontload shipments as worries over additional tariffs mount, while the country’s stimulus measures appear to be supporting demand in the industrial sector. - Can it last? Let's Talk Turkey - Fed has no idea what is going on - They simply can move markets, (equity and fixed income) by liquefying markets - HOPE that they have the general trend and can regulate the flow so not overheat or overcool - In reality, their forecasting tools are crap --- BUT, focus on what they do, not what they say or their outlook Employment Numbers - Summary: Nonfarm payrolls increased by a stronger-than-expected 256,000, the unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% from 4.2%, average hourly earnings growth year-over-year was a sturdy 3.9%, and more people were employed. - Much better than anticipated ! - Unemployment rate drops - So, we see higher prices and better employment - markets spooked that Fed out of touch - One-Two punch for equities Result - Steepening yield curve Market Sell-off - NASDAQ 100 off 6% from the highs - Big names down more (NVDA 13%, Tesla 18%, Apple 10%, NFLX 10%) - SOOOO - Big Cap Tech is in a correction and dragging down markets - Markets are in the RED for the year and unchanged/under the pre-election day move. - More speculative (runners) stocks are down even more... Quantum Stocks - DUH! - Sell-off deepened as Zuck cautioned that the potential is still years (and years) away (on Joe Rogan Show) --- Zuck looking like he wants to follow in Elon's footsteps Quantum Stocks More Zuck - Bashing Apple... - No innovation, random rules - "So how are they making more money as a company? Well, they do it by basically, like, squeezing people, and, like you're saying, having this 30% tax on developers by getting you to buy more peripherals and things that plug into it," Zuckerberg said. "You know, they build stuff like Air Pods, which are cool, but they've just thoroughly hamstrung the ability for anyone else to build something that can connect to the iPhone in the same way." Oh - and this... - Meta on Friday told employees that its plans to end a number of internal programs designed to increase the company's hiring of diverse candidates, the latest dramatic change ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's second White House term. - Among the changes, Meta is ending the company's "Diverse Slate Approach" of considering qualified candidates from underrepresented groups for its open roles. The company is also putting an end to its diversity supplier program and its equity and inclusion training programs. Light at the End of the Tunnel? - Cleveland Cliffs is partnering with rival Nucor in a potential bid for U.S. Steel, whose takeover by Japan's Nippon Steel was just blocked by the White House earlier this month, sources tell CNBC's David Faber. - Cleveland-Cliffs would purchase all of U.S. Steel for all cash and then sell off the Big River Steel subsidiary to Nucor, the sources said. The offer would be in the high $30s a share. - Not a great deal as the Nippon offer was at $55 Meanwhile... - The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States approved an extension of the deadline for Nippon Steel Corp. to abandon its $14.1 billion takeover of United States Steel Corp., according to a statement by US Steel. - The deadline will be extended to June 18 from Feb. 2 originally, following President Joe Biden’s order to halt the deal earlier this month. A Nippon Steel spokesperson confirmed the extension to Bloomberg News. The new deadline is also the date the two companies had set for completing the merger. Trouble in Consumerville? - Abercrombie & Fitch (DOWN -18%) loses much of its appeal today despite raising its Q4 (Jan) sales outlook following upbeat holiday spending trends. - The clothing retailer focused on a younger demographic lifted its Q4 net sales forecast to +7-8% from +5-7%, pushing its FY25 revenue growth guidance to around +15% compared to its previous +14-15% forecast. - Additionally, ANF reiterated its operating margin projections for the quarter and full year, anticipating around 16% and 15%, respectively. - According to Briefing.com: Shares are lower because ANF's sales trends weakened this year compared to the previous holiday season. ----In 2023, ANF raised its Q4 net sales growth outlook to a high teens percentage from low double-digits, suggesting around a 5-9 pt bump due to a robust holiday shopping season. -----A similar development is unfolding for rival American Eagle (AEO) , whose total revenue is tracking around 5% lower for Q4 compared to a low double-digit jump during the year-ago period. - (Disclosure: Core holding for H&C Clients) Takes a Turn - Southwest Airlines is pausing corporate hiring and promotions, suspending most of its summer internships and going without some employee team-building events that date back to the 1980s in order to cut costs and improve margins, CEO Bob Jordan told staff Monday. - As part of the cost cuts, Southwest is pausing its employee "rallies," a company team-building tradition that dates back to 1985 in which staff hear from the airline's leaders about the year's goals and are treated to food and entertainment. - Pushed by activist Elliot Management, the airline last year charted out a plan to increase profits that includes ditching its more than 50-year-old open seating model in favor of assigned seats and creating a section with extra legroom, flying overnight flights and more aggressively cutting back unprofitable routes. Deep in Debt - Rising financing costs along with continued spending growth and declining tax receipts have combined to send deficits spiraling and have pushed the national debt past the $36 trillion mark. - The three-month fiscal year 2025 deficit rose to $710.9 billion, some $200 billion more than the comparable period in the prior year, or 39.4%. - Rising financing costs along with continued spending growth and declining tax receipts have combined to send deficits spiraling, pushing the national debt past the $36 trillion mark. - Though short-term Treasury yields have held fairly steady over the past month, rates at the far end of the duration curve have surged. The benchmark 10-year note most recently yielded close to 4.8%, or about 0.4 percentage point above where it was a month ago. Robinhood - Hand Slap - $45 million penalty - The violations by Robinhood Securities LLC and Robinhood Financial LLC related to failures to report suspicious trading in a timely manner, failing to implement adequate identity theft protections, and failing to adequately address unauthorized access to Robinhood computer systems, the SEC said Monday. - Stick up 8% on the day... More bad actors - Capital One is being sued by the US government’s consumer watchdog agency for “cheating millions of consumers” and not paying more than $2 billion in interest to holders of its high-interest savings accounts. - Stock up 2% on the day... Hmmmm - Eli Lilly struggles to meet sky-high expectations as Q4 Mounjaro and Zepbound sales fall short - STRONG, just not what was expected... - Also, some talk about weight loss pill by LLY (next year) - Stock down 7% on the day.... DOGE - Dogged - Tech billionaire Elon Musk said Wednesday that his budget-cutting effort on behalf of President-elect Donald Trump would most likely not find $2 trillion in savings, backtracking on a goal he set earlier as co-head of a new advisory body, the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE. - Musk told political strategist Mark Penn in an interview broadcast on X that the $2 trillion figure was a "best-case outcome" and that he thought there was only a "good shot" at cutting half that. - Next goal?? $420 Billion? Cracks in the AI $$ game - Alibaba is cutting prices on its large language models by up to 85%, the Chinese tech giant announced Tuesday. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? 2024 - DH Closest to The Pin Cup - FINAL (ERIC) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter…
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DHUnplugged Podcast
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Grinch Ending …. No Santa Rally CTP Results are IN! Close race Cocktails -> Cancerous now PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts ! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Grinch Ending .... No Santa Rally - CTP Results are IN! Close race - Cocktails -> Cancerous now - New rules for medical bill deadbeats - Markets - Poor end of year - hard hit by Grinch - killed Santa Rally - Gym parking Lots - Resolutions for January - Yields starting to becom a problem - CME Fed Funds Futures --> No CUT MAN! Market Update - December Market Update Sector Update January Markets - As expected, the start of the year is typically a time when people make resolutions they hope to keep. - In the finance world, we often hear about returning to discipline, cutting losers, adding to winners, and adhering to all the fundamental rules. - Additionally, at this time of year, investors may consider becoming more aggressive, less aggressive, more diversified, or investing in last year's winning stocks. - These thoughts and actions contribute to market volatility, which usually fades away within a couple of months when resolutions are forgotten ---- Much like how the parking lots at local gyms are packed every January, but plenty of spots open up by March. Big Issue - The big issue we need to focus on now is the continuing increase in rates as the 10-year Treasury yield has now breached a key resistance level of 4.6%, which is significant. - There are several reasons for this move, but the simple facts are that the economy is still growing and prices are on the rise. ISM Report - Not Helping (From Briefing.com) - The ISM Services PMI increased to 54.1% in December (Briefing.com consensus 53.0%) from 52.1% in November. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the December reading reflects services sector activity accelerating from November. - The key takeaway from the report is that it was a double-whammy for rate cut expectations in that the expansion in services sector activity accelerated while the prices index picked up noticeably, printing its first reading above 60.0% since January 2024. • The Business Activity/Production Index increased to 58.2% from 53.7%. • The New Orders Index bumped up to 54.2% from 53.7%. • The Employment Index dipped to 51.4% from 51.5%. • The Prices Index jumped to 64.4% from 58.2%. • The Supplier Deliveries Index rose to 52.5% from 49.5%. • The Backlog of Orders Index fell to 44.3% from 47.1%. No Cuts for A While - With prices on the rise and the economy in good shape... CME Fed Funds Nat Gas! - Natural gas futures prices surged last Monday, hitting a new 52-week high following reports of a colder-than-usual temperature outlook for January. - Natural gas February futures rose around 15% during the session after an updated outlook by The Weather Co. and Atmospheric G2 released Sunday showed that the temperature forecast for next month is expected to be colder than average in the East, specifically from Florida to Maine as well as certain parts of the Great Lakes. - POLAR VORTEX? - Already prices are fading.... Booze Bummer - The U.S. surgeon general issued a new advisory warning Friday about the link between alcohol consumption and increased cancer risk, and pushed for policy changes to help reduce the number of alcohol-related cancers. - U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy said there is a "well-established" link between drinking alcohol and at least seven types of cancer, including breast, colorectum, esophagus and liver. For cancers including breast, mouth and throat cancers, increased risk may start around one or fewer drinks per day, according to his office. - As part of the advisory, the surgeon general called for policy changes that could help reduce alcohol-related cancer. He pushed for alcohol labels to be more visible and include a warning about the increased risk of cancer, to reassess recommended limits for alcohol consumption based on the latest research and expand education to increase general awareness that alcohol consumption increases cancer risk. Madoff $$$ - The 10th and final distribution from a fund for victims of the late Ponzi scheme king Bernie Madoff began Monday, the Department of Justice said. - The last disbursement, of more than $131 million, is being sent to more than 23,000 victims worldwide. When it is completed, more than $4.3 billion will have been distributed by the fund to more than 40,000 victims in nearly 130 countries - The largest portion of the fund for Madoff's victims, about $2.2 billion, came from a civil forfeiture recovery from the estate of Jeffry Picower, a now-dead Madoff investor, the DOJ said. - Another $1.7 billion came from JPMorgan Chase as part of a deferred prosecution agreement with the DOJ in January 2014. JPMorgan Chase and its predecessor institutions had served as the primary bank through which Madoff operated his scheme, the DOJ has previously said. Weird Reports - Both General Motors and Ford Motor on Friday reported their best annual U.S. new vehicle sales since 2019, prior to impacts from the coronavirus pandemic and yearslong supply chain problems. - GM reported 2024 sales of more than 2.7 million vehicles, up 4.3% from a year earlier. The automaker sold 2.9 million units in 2019. Meanwhile - Tesla bombs - Tesla posted its fourth-quarter vehicle production and deliveries report on TK. Here are the key numbers: ----Total deliveries Q4 2024: 495,570 ---- Total production Q4 2024: 459,445 -----Total annual deliveries 2024: 1,789,226 ------Total annual production 2024: 1,773,443 - Results for the quarter represented the first annual drop in delivery numbers for Tesla, a decline from 484,507 in the fourth quarter of 2023. For the full year, deliveries fell from 1.81 million in 2023. - Analysts had expected Tesla to report deliveries in the quarter of 504,770 - Stock dropped on the news.... --- Remember when ELON first bought Twitter and shares of Tesla tanked as concern that he was going to lose focus on the car company in favor of Twitter? --- Could the same thing be happening now? More Odd Car News - Short seller Hindenburg Research on Thursday accused Carvana of a running an “accounting grift for the ages” in a bombshell report — sending shares of the used-car retailer tumbling. - Its report — titled “Carvana: A Father-Son Accounting Grift for the Ages” — accused the Tempe, Arizona-based company of insider trading and accounting manipulation. - “Our research uncovered $800 million in loan sales to a suspected undisclosed related party, along with details on how accounting manipulation and lax underwriting have fueled temporary reported income growth — all while insiders cash out billions in stock,” the short seller alleged. Banks - Fighting Back - The biggest banks are planning to sue the Federal Reserve over the annual bank stress tests - Then, the Federal Reserve announced in a statement that it is looking to make changes to the bank stress tests and will be seeking public comment on what it calls "significant changes to improve the transparency of its bank stress tests and to reduce the volatility of resulting capital buffer requirements." - The Fed said it made the determination to change the tests because of "the evolving legal landscape," pointing to changes in administrative laws in recent years. It didn't outline any specific changes to the framework of the annual stress tests. - So the banks are making the rules? Medical Bills and Reporting - Today, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) finalized a rule that will remove an estimated $49 billion in medical bills from the credit reports of about 15 million Americans. - The CFPB’s action will ban the inclusion of medical bills on credit reports used by lenders and prohibit lenders from using medical information in their lending decisions. The rule will increase privacy protections and prevent debt collectors from using the credit reporting system to coerce people to pay bills they don’t owe. - So, good news? Still at it... - Shares of Chinese tech heavyweight Tencent Holdings tumbled 5.3% in Hong Kong after the company was added to a list of "Chinese military companies" by the U.S. Department of Defense. - Other Chinese companies added to the list included battery maker CATL, which is part of the supply chain for automakers such as Ford and Tesla. Presidential Stuff What???? - President-elect Trump at press conference says he is not ruling out using economic or military force to take control of Greenland or The Panama Canal -- OH, and we are going to change the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America (maybe Change the Pacific Ocean to West American?) - Indiana - change to Cowboyana? --- In fact - almost every state is named for an Indian word or non-American reason... --- See-> https://www.bia.gov/as-ia/opa/online-press-release/origin-names-us-states A little trivia with the inauguration just a few days away at this point... - Historical question: What was and who gave the shortest and longest Inaugural address? Shortest - George Washington's second inaugural address, delivered in 1793, is the shortest inaugural address in U.S. history, consisting of only 135 words Longest - William Henry Harrison's 1841 inaugural address was the longest, consisting of 8,455 words. ---- Harrison died a month after his inauguration from pneumonia, which was likely caused by exposure to bad weather on Inauguration Day. Biden Giving More Away - President Joe Biden on Sunday signed the Social Security Fairness Act, bipartisan legislation that clears the way for teachers, firefighters, policeman and other public sector workers who also receive pension income to receive increases in their Social Security benefits. - The benefit boost comes as the new law repeals two provisions — the Windfall Elimination Provision, or WEP, and the Government Pension Offset, or GPO — that have been in place for more than four decades. - The WEP reduces Social Security benefits for individuals who receive pension or disability benefits from employment where Social Security payroll taxes were not withheld. As of December 2023, that provision affected about 2 million Social Security beneficiaries. Melania - Amazon Prime Video has exclusively licensed an upcoming documentary film for both theatrical and streaming release that will give viewers an unprecedented, behind-the-scenes look at First Lady Melania Trump," an Amazon spokesperson said Sunday. - "Filming began in December 2024, with an anticipated release in the second half of 2025. Prime Video will be sharing more details on the project as filming progresses and release plans are finalized. We are excited to share this truly unique story with our millions of customers around the world," the spokesperson said. Hack - Chinese state-sponsored hackers broke into the U.S. Treasury Department earlier this month and stole documents from its workstations, according to a letter to lawmakers that was provided to Reuters on Monday. - The hackers compromised a third-party cybersecurity service provider and were able to access unclassified documents, the letter said, calling it a "major incident." - According to the letter, hackers "gained access to a key used by the vendor to secure a cloud-based service used to remotely provide technical support for Treasury Departmental Offices end users. With access to the stolen key, the threat actor was able override the service's security, remotely access certain Treasury DO user workstations, and access certain unclassified documents maintained by those users." - Is this still part of that SolarWinds hack from a couple yeas back? Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? 2024 - DH Closest to The Pin Cup - FINAL (ERIC) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter…
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Another year is in the record books…. Let’s not forget about the not-so boring election, Hacks, beached and outages and PEAK NVDA! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts ! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign... Checking out the early CTP Cup Standings HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? 2024 - DH Closest to The Pin Cup - Up and Running Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter…
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DHUnplugged Podcast
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Shutdown….. AVERTED Mergers – Auto Industry big move Lots of Trump Talk The Market’s new favorite stocks PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts ! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign... Warm-Up - Shutdown..... AVERTED - Mergers - Auto Industry big move - Lots of Trump Talk - Deli Stock Scheme - Update - Holiday Tidings! - Markets - S&P 500 Equal weight down 6% MTD, Small Caps down 8% - The New favs? Quantum Computing Stocks - Santa Like them..... - Index inclusion has become a thing Checking out the early CTP Cup Standings EVERYONE IS IN! - 7 Contestants.... Fed Meeting Dec 18th - Fed freaked out markets - All of a sudden they are projecting that inflation is not going to come down to their 2% level into 2026 - DJIA was donw 1000 points and it was an ugly day overall. - Onc day later, PCE comes out not too far aay from assumptions and market takes off - Just goes to show that DJIA - Records? - Follow up - it was 10 days and the last time that happened was 1974 Meanwhile - XMAS Rally - Once big day down, then a test and BOUNCE - Most of the Fed Day losses have been wipe out - still much damage in December --- Once again - Mega cap holding things up ---- EVEN though 10Yr >4.6% - this is an important price point... Failed couple of times before. Quantum Computing Stocks - Ever since Alphabet (Google) announced that they made progress, been some crazy moves on a few names - with YTD returns -- D-Wave Quantum Inc QBTS (825%) -- Rigetti Computing Inc RGTI (1,050%) -- Quantum Computing Inc QUBT (1,900%) -- Defiance Quantum ETF QTUM (51%) -- IONQ Inc IONQ (240%) ---(none seem to be making any money - actually losing a ton) More Quantum - Willow's speed is almost incomprehensible — according to Google, it's able to perform a computation in under five minutes that would take one of today's fastest supercomputers 10 septillion years to solve. Ten septillion is 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years. - Concern has turned to the potential for this technology to break down crypto (or other) cryptography. --- It may take years - but this could be something we need to watch as a byproduct, the need for better security from quantum hacks Auto Merger - Japanese automakers Nissan and Honda on Monday announced they had entered into official talks to merge and create the world's third-largest automaker by sales. - The deal would aim to share intelligence and resources and deliver economies of scale and synergies while protecting both brands - Nissan's strategic partner Mitsubishi has been offered the chance to join the new group and will take a decision by the end of January 2025. - Lots of things to iron out before this deal gets done Index Traders - Hang on... - Huge moves to reset these days - Companies are competing to get to NASDAQ and NYSE to gain inclusion as they know share prices will potentially pop - Palatntir is banking on that as they said in their recent announcement and one reason was to get inclusion in the NASDAQ 100 - These kind of index changes has buig impacts on stocks - - ALSO, there should be some movement over the next month as there will be re-balancing going on as 2024 big run for markets/stocks Trump Talk/Plans - Trump said he will not let the canal fall into the 'wrong hands' - Trump accused Panama of charging excessive fees to use the canal - Panama's President Mulino defends canal's independence and fees - US handed over control of the canal in 1999 - Talk that we could take it back - Twitter: "Every square meter of the Panama Canal and the surrounding area belongs to Panama and will continue belonging (to Panama)," Mulino said in his statement, which was released on X. --------Trump then responded to Mulino: "We'll see about that!" More Talk - "I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way," Trump posted on his Truth Social platform. - Who did he tell exactly? -- Where does he come up up with this stuff? - According to U.S. figures, the country's goods and services trade deficit with the European Union was $131.3 billion in 2022. The U.S. was the biggest recipient of EU goods in 2023, accounting for 19.7% of its exports. (Maybe we should make something that people want to buy?) Greenland - Again? - “For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity,” Trump said in a statement on Truth Social. Fraud? - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Friday sued the operator of the Zelle payments network and the three U.S. banks that dominant transactions on it, alleging that the firms failed to properly investigate fraud complaints or give victims reimbursements. - "The nation's largest banks felt threatened by competing payment apps, so they rushed to put out Zelle," CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a statement. "By their failing to put in place proper safeguards, Zelle became a gold mine for fraudsters, while often leaving victims to fend for themselves." Govy Shutdown - President Joe Biden signed a bill into law Saturday that averts a government shutdown, bringing a final close to days of upheaval after Congress approved a temporary funding plan just past the deadline and refused President-elect Donald Trump’s core debt demands in the package. - Even though there is a desire for cutting costs by the Trump team, President-Elect Trump wanted to raise or suspend the debt ceiling in the latest bill. - US Governtment debt is $36 Billion Now...123% Debt to GDP Debt to GDP What is with the drones? - The Federal Aviation Administration on Wednesday temporarily banned drone flights over 22 areas across New Jersey amid complaints of strange and often bright drones in the night sky. - "At the request of federal security partners, the FAA published 22 Temporary Flight Restrictions (TFRs) prohibiting drone flights over critical New Jersey infrastructure," the FAA said in a statement to CNBC. - The TFRs will last until Jan. 17 and cover large parts of central and northern New Jersey, including Elizabeth, Camden and Jersey City, the second most populous city in the Garden State. Deli Duo - Father, son plead guilty in $100 million New Jersey deli stock scheme - The Cokers and Patten each admitted their roles in the scheme to artificially boost the stock price of Hometown, whose only real business asset was the Your Hometown Deli in Paulsboro, as well as the shares of a shell company then known as E-Waste. - Hometown's stock price rose by more than 900% as a result of the scheme. The price of E-Waste rose by nearly 20,000%. - The scam, which ran from 2014 through September 2022, involved coordinated trading of the stocks of both companies, creating a false impression of demand for their shares, which traded on OTC Marketplace. - The defendants during the conspiracy gained control of the companies' management and shares, with the aim of using them as vehicles for reverse mergers with privately held companies. Both companies ended up being merged in such deals with private firms. Lilly - Another Benefit of Zepbound - The Food and Drug Administration approved Eli Lilly's blockbuster weight loss drug Zepbound for treating patients with the most common sleep-related breathing disorder, the drugmaker announced Friday, expanding its use and possibly its insurance coverage in the U.S. - The weekly injection is now cleared for patients with obesity and moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea, which refers to breathing interrupted during sleep due to narrowed or blocked airways. - An estimated 80 million patients in the U.S. experience the disease, according to Eli Lilly. Roughly 20 million of those people have moderate-to-severe forms of the disease, but 85% of cases go undiagnosed, the company told CNBC earlier this year. TEMU Competition - Two weeks before Black Friday, Amazon quietly added a new section to the top of its mobile app. Called Haul, it's a mobile-only area for ultra-low-price items, primarily shipped directly from China. - Haul is Amazon's answer to the booming popularity of apps such as PDD Holdings' Temu and fast-fashion retailer Shein. Amazon told CNBC that Haul has had millions of unique customer visits since it launched in November. - Like Temu, Haul offers items at bargain prices, such as sneakers for $9.98, kitchenware for $5.99 and phone cases for $2.99. --- H&C Clients own Akazon as well as PDD - TEMU Owner Pepsi - Multi-Year lows - Frito-Lay segment not doing well- packaged foods not doing well - Interesting chart Pepsi Chart Bankruptcy - The Container store filed for reorg - The Container Store said this doesn't mark the end of the retailer. The company said it filed for voluntary protection under Chapter 11 in the bankruptcy court for the Southern District of Texas as it plans to "implement a recapitalization transaction to bolster its financial position, fuel growth initiatives, and drive enhanced long-term profitability." - Need to stop this practice as it breeds poor management. ---- If bankrupt, management is out and no pre-bancrupcy bonuses 2025 predictions? - Stock market - Bond Yields? - Bitcoin? - Gold? Next week - we have a great show lined up - by our good friend Ryan Rediske - HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? 2024 - DH Closest to The Pin Cup - Up and Running Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter…
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1 DHUnplugged #732: Fanning the Flames 1:01:35
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Kissing Ass is good for the wallet Fed is about to meet and make a rate decision Time’s Person of the Year! Whistleblower found dead PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts ! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign... Warm-Up - Kissing Ass is good for the wallet - Fed is about to meet and make a rate decision - Person of the Year! - Whistleblower found dead - Markets - Odd - DJIA down for 7 days, NASDAQ can't be stopped (TSLA pushing this time - once again a reason to look at market cap weightings) - Fanning the flames - A new name into NASDAQ 100 - Earnings - A few interesting data points - Social Security benefits increase - Yes and No, Inflation and No Inflation - Not since... 2018 or 1978? Reminder - the CTP Contestants for 2024 CTP Cup Michael Bowling Kirk Saathoff Eric Harvey Chad Laajala Tim Dewey Paul Kinder Anson Brady (2023 CTP Cup Winner) ---Emails have gone out... Fed Meeting Dec 18th - 89% probability of a 0.25% rate cut - Fed has its back to the wall - markets are dictating - No reason to believe that they need a cut, although the would not want to worry markets or surprise them in any way - All reporting shows that they will do the cut, back off a little as to the amount of potential cuts coming in recognition of the fact that the economy is still running well DJIA - Records? - The DJIA has been down for 8 days in a row and that has not happened since 2018. - If the DJIA declines today, that would take us back to the 1970's, 1978 to be exact when there was a 9 day decline. - But, that is the DJIA, the NASDAQ an SP500 have been holding up. - Moreover, the fall for the DJIA this month is less that 3%, so not much damage done to the index itself. Another Sinkhole Warning - SP500 equal weighted is down more than 3% for the MTD. - SP500 up slightly MTD - NASDAQ 100 up moer than 5% - Small-caps down 3% BUT - Wait.... - A measure of wholesale price rose more than expected in November, adding fuel to the belief that progress in bringing down inflation has slowed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. - On an annual basis, PPI rose 3%, the biggest advance since February 2023. - This is after an inline CPI number. - Rates are on the rise for bonds, as expected --- Mark this date - inflation could make a comeback in 2025 and totally offside the fed (And they are fanning the flames ) AND Consumers are Spending - November Retail Sales 0.7% vs. 0.5% consensus; prior revised to 0.5% from 0.4% But - ISM Composite - Rolling Over ISM Composite CHIPS - Shares of Broadcom popped more than 21% Friday morning, pushing the company’s market cap beyond $1 trillion for the first time. It will be Broadcom’s best trading day on record if the move holds until the closing bell. The move comes after the company reported fourth-quarter results that beat Wall Street’s expectations for earnings and showed strong artificial intelligence revenue growth. - Broadcom reported $14.05 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter, up 51% year over year but shy of the $14.09 billion expected by analysts according to LSEG. In Broadcom’s semiconductor solutions group, which includes its AI chips, revenue increased 12% to $8.23 billion from $8.03 billion a year ago. More Chips - US planning on restricting AI Chips around the world - Planning on closing China's backdoor access -Washington plans rules limiting semiconductor shipments to some countries accused of supplying Beijing - NVDA, MSFT, GOOG, GOOGL, AMD, INTC, SMH Nuclear - getting some traction - SMRs - Small Nuclear Reactors - Small modular reactors, with a power capacity of 300 megawatts or less, are about a third the size of the average reactors in the current U.S. fleet. The goal is to build them in a process similar to an assembly line, with plants rolling out of factories in just a handful of pieces that are then put together at the site. - Only three SMRs are operational in the world (China and Russia) - Keep an eye on the news for utilities that will be moving into nuclear - demand is high - theme for 2025 EVEN More Nukes - GE Vernova is aiming to deploy small nuclear reactors across the developed world over the next decade, staking out a leadership position in a budding technology that could play a central role in meeting surging electricity demand and reducing carbon dioxide emissions. - GE Vernova is the spinoff of General Electric's former energy business. The company's stock has more than doubled since listing on the New York Stock Exchange last April - The U.S. government wants to triple nuclear power by 2050 to shore up an electric grid that is under growing pressure from surging power demand. But large nuclear projects, in the U.S. at least, are notoriously plagued by multi-billion dollar budgets, cost overruns, delayed construction timelines and, sometimes, cancellations. Tech Wars - Geopolitical tensions are brewing globally over the cutting of subsea cables — critical infrastructure powering cross-border internet connectivity — in the Baltic Sea. - The severing (a week or so ago) of the cables prompted warnings of "sabotage" and potential "hybrid" warfare targeting key infrastructure in the West amid further escalations in the ongoing war in Ukraine. - Last week, two undersea cables were severed in the Baltic Sea, raising suspicions that subsea communication systems may be the latest target of sabotage against the West, as it clashes with Russia over the country's invasion of Ukraine. -One of the cables disrupted was C-Lion1, which links Finland and Germany and is owned by Cinia, a Finnish state-controlled IT firm. Spanning nearly 1,200 kilometers (730 miles), it is the only direct connection of its kind between Finland and Central Europe. -The other cable damaged was one connecting Lithuania and Sweden, BCS East West Interlink. --- Both are either mostly or fully repaired already and had alternative routes to move data when was cut.... Musk - SpaceX - Valuation rockets higher - SpaceX is in discussions to sell insider shares that could boost the value of Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite company to around $350 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. - That would be a significant premium to a previously mulled valuation of $255 billion as reported by Bloomberg News and other media outlets just last month. It would also cement SpaceX’s status as the most valuable private US company. - Earlier this year SpaceX did a tender at a valuation of ~ $211 billion Kissing Ass - We have seen this before - and now it is a smart move as a little brown nose goes a long way - Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son will announce a $100 billion investment in the U.S. over the next four years during a Monday visit to President-elect Donald Trump's residence Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida. - Tim Cook had dinner with Presedent-Elect Trump Person of the Year! - Time Magazine has named Donald Trump as their person of the year for the second time. - Trump was first named person of the year in 2016 after winning the US presidential election. - Last Thursday, The Republican president-elect is rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange to commemorate the honor alongside several of his family members. NASDAQ 100 In and Out - MicroStrategy is in! Talk about fanning the flames --- MicroStrategy is a money-losing software company that is largely a leveraged bitcoin play. It's sold stock and debt to buy up more and more of the cryptocurrency. Its market cap is at $82 billion. - On the way out? Moderna and Super Micro Computer are among the smallest Nasdaq 100 members. - Palatir is also a name that is in the mix to be added to NAZ100 Whistleblower found Dead - A 26-year-old former OpenAI researcher, Suchir Balaji, was found dead in his San Francisco apartment in recent weeks, CNBC has confirmed. - Balaji left OpenAI earlier this year and raised concerns publicly that the company had allegedly violated U.S. copyright law while developing its popular ChatGPT chatbot." - "The manner of death has been determined to be suicide," - The San Francisco Police Department said in an e-mail that on the afternoon of Nov. 26, officers were called to an apartment on Buchanan Street to conduct a "wellbeing check." They found a deceased adult male, and discovered "no evidence of foul play" in their initial investigation, the department said. Earnings - Adobe shares fell 13% on Thursday and headed for their steepest drop since March after the software vendor issued disappointing revenue guidance. - Sales in the fiscal first quarter will be between $5.63 billion and $5.68 billion, Adobe said in its fourth-quarter earnings report late Wednesday. Analysts on average were expecting revenue of $5.73 billion - Analysts at TD Cowen downgraded the stock to hold from buy, while Wells Fargo kept its buy rating following what it called a "frustrating '24" for the company. The stock is now down 20% for the year - AI hype/hope unrealized Social Security Benefits Benefit? - Last month, the House of Representatives on Nov. 12 passed the Social Security Fairness Act by an overwhelming 327 to 75 majority. - The proposal would eliminate rules that reduce Social Security benefits for those who also receive income from public pensions, roughly around 2.8 million people. - Senate needs to vote - but this would be adding to the deficit and that is not a popular side right now. - Needs to rush this along so that Biden can pass it Interesting - The U.K. is drawing up measures to regulate the use of copyrighted content by tech companies to train their artificial intelligence models. - The British government on Tuesday kicked off a consultation which aims to increase clarity for both the creative industries and AI developers when it comes to both how intellectual property is obtained and then used by AI firms for training purposes. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? 2024 - DH Closest to The Pin Cup - Up and Running Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter…
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DHUnplugged Podcast
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Big - Run - Crypto Pops and Drops Stacking the Admin with $$$ Peeps HUGE Baseball Deal Equifax Class Action - Finally a payout? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign... Warm-Up - Big - Run - Crypto Pops and Drops - Stacking the Admin with $$$ Peeps - Baseball Deal - Equifax Class Action - Finally a payout? Markets - Employment Report - This week's CPI and PPI Data - Santa Rally - Could be just be a couple weeks away - - Trump Limericks (AI) ANNOUNCING the CTP Contestants for 2024 CTP Cup Michael Bowling Kirk Saathoff Eric Harvey Chad Laajala Tim Dewey Paul Kinder Anson Brady (2023 CTP Cup Winner) ---Emails have gone out... Regarding AMD - BofA Securities downgraded Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to Neutral from Buy, lower CY25/26 pf-EPS by 6%/8%ta $4.43/55.51, about -13%/-23% below consensus 55.09/57.11. Two factors: 1) Higher competitive risks in Al against best-of-breed NVDA's dominance, and growing cloud preference for custom chips from MRVL/AVGO. limiting AMD's market share gain potential, and 2) Potential for 1H'25E PC processor correction, after ~4O% HoH surge in AMD's 2H'24E client PC sales. Shares are down 3%. Oracle Earnings - Oracle (ORCL -8%) is lower following its Q2 (Nov) earnings report last night. - The company reported a slight EPS miss, its second miss in the past three quarters. - Revenue rose 8.6% yr/yr to $14.06 bln, but that was also a bit light of analyst expectations. - The Q3 (Feb) adjusted EPS guidance of $1.47-1.51 was also lower than expected. - Oracle guided to Q3 revs of +7-9% (+9-11% CC), which we compute as $14.21-14.48 bln, which was also light, partly due to FX. Google Chip - Releases the Willow quantum computing chip - Google has unveiled a new chip which it claims takes five minutes to solve a problem that would currently take the world's fastest super computers ten septillion – or 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years – to complete. - However experts say Willow is, for now, a largely experimental device, meaning a quantum computer powerful enough to solve a wide range of real-world problems is still years - and billions of dollars - away. MLB Deal - The Mets on Sunday agreed to sign Juan Soto to a 15-year, $765 million contract, multiple sources said, by far the largest pact in Major League Baseball history. - The deal, which the Mets have not confirmed because it’s pending a physical, contains a $75 million signing bonus, an opt-out after five seasons and no deferred money. - The Mets will have the ability to void Soto’s opt-out clause after the 2029 season if they boost the average annual value of the final 10 years of his deal from $51 million to $55 million, according to a source. - In that case, the overall deal would be for 15 years and $805 million - Right and Left Fielder - with .288 Batting average - In 2024, he hit 41 homers and had 129 walks. It was his fourth season with at least 25 home runs and 125 walks. That's fourth-most in MLB history, behind only Barry Bonds (10 such seasons), Babe Ruth (10) and Ted Williams (eight). China - Back in the Spotlight - Disinflation again and profits slowing - China's inflation drops - China's producer price index declined for the 26th month. Producer inflation fell by 2.5% year on year in November... - Sunday announcement - China's leaders on Monday pledged "more proactive" fiscal measures and "moderately" looser monetary policy next year to boost domestic consumption, according to an official readout of a key policy meeting that outlined upcoming economic priorities.…
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DHUnplugged Podcast
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1 DHUnplugged #730: Spend Spend Spend 1:04:14
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Very Business friendly cabinet Market rotation continues - now it is back into the big-caps Consumers - WOW! - Spend Spend Spend Black Friday and Cyber Monday updates PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign... Warm-Up - Very Business friendly cabinet - Market rotation continues - now it is back into the big-caps - Consumers - WOW! - Spend Spend Spend - Black Friday and Cyber Monday updates Markets - November - the best month of the year! - New highs and predictions for a 5% December - USD is on the rise - bond yields ease. - Bitcoin can't seem to breach $100k ANNOUNCING the CTP Contestants for 2024 CTP Cup Michael Bowling Kirk Saathoff Eric Harvey Chad Laajala Tim Dewey Paul Kinder Anson Brady (2023 CTP Cup Winner) Saying goodbye to legend - Art Cashin - Pillar of the exchange - He was on the TDI Podcast - LINK Marshall Law - South Korean President Yoon declares martial law: - Says through martial law he will rebuild a free and democratic country - Government administration has been paralyzed because of opposition party conducts - Says he will eradicate pro-North forces and protect constitutional order - Marshall Law lifted - but a good amount of confusion remains Consumers on a Rampage - Adobe said that in the U.S., consumers made a record-breaking $10.8 billion of purchases, up 10.2% on last year. - Cyber Monday sales reached $13.5 bln, ahead of initial expectations - Quick Amazon vs Costco Story - Looking for UPS backup - Same model on Amazon (Cyber Monday Deal) $179 - Costco $129 - Buy now, pay later plans helped finance purchases, driving 8.8% more in online spend than last year - But... Not so much IN-STORE: Overall, store traffic on Black Friday was down 3.2%, with footfall down 7% in the Midwest, 2.1% in the Northeast, 3.5% in the South and 3.2% in the West Retail - Consumer discretionary stocks are on fire - People are buying - alot of stuff - Abercrombie & Fitch issued strong holiday guidance last week after posting its sixth straight quarter of double-digit sales growth and another quarter of results that topped expectations. - Gap issued good guidance as well - RTH ETF - (Retail) all time high (Amazon, Costco, Home Depot, WalMart etc) On the Other hand.... - Electronics provider Best Buy on Tuesday cut its full-year sales forecast as it missed Wall Street's quarterly revenue expectations and a fresh batch of iPhones and AI-enabled laptops weren't enough to drive higher sales. - The consumer electronics retailer said it now expects full-year revenue to range from $41.1 billion to $41.5 billion, compared to prior guidance of $41.3 billion to $41.9 billion. - It expects full-year comparable sales to decline by between 2.5% and 3.5%, compared to its prior expectations of a 1.5% to 3% drop. Year Top Date Scorecard S&P Sector Scorecard AI - Amazon announced it would invest an additional $4 billion in Anthropic, the artificial intelligence startup founded by ex-OpenAI research executives. - The new funding brings the tech giant's total investment to $8 billion, though Amazon will retain its position as a minority investor, according to Anthropic, the San Francisco-based startup behind the Claude chatbot and AI model. - Amazon Web Services will also become Anthropic's "primary cloud and training partner," - Amazon does not have a seat on Anthropic's board. AI - Immigration - A signature campaign promise of President-elect Donald Trump is to initiate mass deportations of undocumented residents of the United States. - At a Sept. 12 campaign stop in Tucson, Arizona,…
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DHUnplugged Podcast
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1 DHUnplugged #729: We Are All Turkeys 1:07:06
1:07:06
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Where are all the smokers these days? DOGE - making promises. We are all turkeys - just gullible for every comment and promise. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along... Twitter - How you like the AI generated cover art? (May need to come to DHUnplugged to see all) Warm-Up - Where are all the smokers these days? - DOGE - making promises - High level indictment - We are all turkeys - just gullible for every comment and promise Markets -#endthefed making the rounds - Treasury Secretary? - Target earnings surprise - Black Friday - will that boost retail? - New Phrase - Mullet Market Thanksgiving - What is going to be on the Dvorak table? ANNOUNCING the CTP Winner for Carvana Mullet Market - No, the fish... - Steady benchmarks in the front, crypto party in the back Netflix Again - Netflix notches 70 million monthly active users on ad-supported plan - 250 million subs and 70 million on ad plan - Didn't we used to call this TV? Made a full circle except that ad-based also has a monthly fee - Over 50% of the new sign ups are ads based plans Smokers - Retail cigarette sales in China have been growing for the past 4 years, reaching 2.44 trillion sticks in 2023, data from Euromonitor showed. The research group forecasts that sales will continue to increase annually, hitting 2.48 trillion by 2028. - Euromonitor added that growth has coincided with the increasing popularity of "slim" cigarettes, often advertised as "low-tar," and various types of flavored cigarettes. - Between 2019 and 2023, annual worldwide sales of cigarette sticks fell by about 2.7% to 5.18 trillion, according to Euromonitor data. At more than 300 million, China has the most cigarette smokers in the world, making up nearly a third of the world's total smokers, according to the World Health Organization. Topic of Discussion - #endthefed - Do you think that Musk and Trump and the new gang will try to end the Fed? - Elon endorsed the idea of the President being able to intervene on monetary policy. - Seems like that will undermine the independence and then the confidence in the Fed -- Going to be some fireworks with Powell saying he will not resign and cannot be fired DOGE - Dept of Government Efficiency - Still a hardy har name - like saying Penis when in 3rd grade - Incoming Department of Government Efficiency wants to create new mobile application for Americans to file taxes for free with IRS, according to Washington Post (Intuit and HR Block down on this...) - Explain how a government agency that does not exist is making these kinds of statements. --- Thought: Make these statements and either buy or short stocks? (Again we are all turkeys - hopefully not going to be led to slaughter) Higher rates - Rates are running higher after the election - actually up to the election ran up from 3.6% to 4.6% and nor in the range - DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Thursday interest rates could shoot higher as the Republicans ended up controlling the House, securing a governing trifecta that gives President-elect Donald Trump free rein to spend as he pleases. - Pre-election: "If the House goes to Republicans, there's going to be a lot of debt, there's going to be higher interest rates at the long end, and it'll be interesting to see how the Fed reacts to that," Gundlach said - If the Trump administration extends the 2017 tax cuts or introduces new reductions, it could add significant amount to the nation's debt in the next few years, worsening the already troublesome fiscal picture. Yeah Right.... - Vocal critic of Putin, Vladimir Shklyarov, 39,…
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DHUnplugged Podcast
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Wild ride for markets - election movers and groovers. Fed dousing the fire a bit. Inflation is still a thing. Nuke talk again.... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along... Warm-Up - Up and Down - Election Confusing Markets - What a wild ride - more to come - CTP for Carvana will be closing out this coming Friday and that is it for 2024 - CTP Cup comes in December - More hacks that no one cares about - Another big bankruptcy - Nuke talks again Markets - Up and down - shine off that penny? - Every pick / comment brings on new move - Fed pours some cold water on markets - Inflation - still a thing - Something happening - only happened a few times in history ANNOUNCEMENT : AH - Chili Competition Results - 3rd Place Netflix - Jake Paul (27) and Mike Tyson (58) - 60 million people "tried" to watch - Glitches - system overload - Jake Paul took it in a 8 round decision. - Can you imagine if Netflix starts doing these live events with a $1 charge? - Jake Paul got $40M and Tyson got $20M Follow Up - Palantir - Jumps after earnings and then announcing move to NASDAQ (Nov 26) - As of last Friday - #1 performer in S&P 500 this year - Up 48% MTD and 250% YTD - Big move Friday was because it will qualify for NAZ 100 (QQQ) and lots of buying will need to be done - Good for Peter: Thiel's Palantir holdings have increased in value by about $3.2 billion since the earnings report and $2 billion since the election. Once Hot -Now Not - Here is company that we had for clients -bought low, sold higher, bought some more higher, sold on way down - Super Micro - SMCI - was a darling for some time - then a few short sellers attacked - stock sold off - Company decided to follow the other guys with 10-1 stock spilts - stock was as high as $1,200 per share pre split- now??? $21.75 ($217.50 comparable) - Could be kicked out of NASDAQ - Short -Sellers couldbe right - Super Micro is late in filing its 2024 year-end report with the SEC, and has yet to replace its accounting firm. --- UPDATE - Super Micro Computer secures BDO USA as lead auditor, targets key filings by early 2025 amid NASDAQ approval process (Stock up 25%) Markets - Not Often Seen - The stock market has done this only three times since January 1871 - The Shiller P/E ratio has reached a reading of 38 only three times during a bull market rally in 153 years. In December 1999, during the dot-com boom, the Shiller P/E peaked at a reading of 44.19. Meanwhile, in the first week of 2022, it very briefly lifted above 40. - On most occasions, this heat needs to be cooled... It could take time as this is a slow moving ratio/indicator - Another point - only a few times in history have we seen a market up 20% - 2 consecutive years. --- Will it continue? History shows that this needs to cool off too - but that does not mean a crash is imminent. More Cooling - Russell 2000 was HOT right after the election. - Day after it was up like 5%+++ - Last week, down 4% Hack'd - Hackers linked to a Chinese intelligence agency were able to breach T-Mobile as part of a months-long campaign to spy on the cellphone communications of high-value intelligence targets - Last Wednesday, The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the U.S. cyber watchdog agency CISA said China-linked hackers have intercepted surveillance data intended for American law enforcement agencies after breaking into an unspecified number of telecom companies. - Earlier in October, the Journal reported that Chinese hackers accessed the networks of U.S. broadband providers, including Verizon Communications, AT&T and Lumen Technologies,…
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DHUnplugged Podcast
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Looking back at some of the funnier and more memorable episodes. Focusing n a few specific topics from years ago. Thank you Ryan for putting this together. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along... Thanks again to the great Ryan Rediske for putting this episode together! This is a DH Unplugged chronicle of the rise and fall of the Facebook initial public offering; a cautionary tale of hubris and hype that ended with chaos, panic and scandal. Episode 139, February 7th, 2012, the Facebook IPO is announced with great expectations. John C Dvorak, our tech hero, makes two courageous and bold predictions. Andrew Horowitz, our financial wizard, combines his unmatched insight with his extensive analysis skills to summarize the fundamentals. April 11th, Facebook buys Instagram. John mentions a lost opportunity and Andrew questions the logic. May 3rd, The Instagram purchase is analyzed further. Begun, the patent wars have. May 10th, Facebook alters their S1. Pray they do not alter the deal further. John announces special Facebook Friday. Andrew foreshadows with concerns. May 16th, The price rises, the revenue falls. John is cheap faked for humorous effect. Andrew offers sage IPO purchase advice. May 23rd, John admires a Facebook hit piece. Andrew sheds light on some potentially shady underwriting. May 23rd, Andrew shorts Facebook. John lavishes him with praise. May 30th, John predicts law suits. Andrew senses foul play and greed. August 1st, Facebook stock plays limbo; how low can they go? Guess who they blame? September 5th, A major firm downgrades Facebook and Andrew predicts a short squeeze. October 10th, Facebook makes the cover of Barons. We join our heroes in the spring of 2011, discussing the potential for round three of the federal reserve's quantitative easing program to buy bonds and lower interest rates in an attempt to stimulate the economy. Episode 105, April 14th, Morgan Stanley estimates US GDP. John uses the words "bull crap". April 21st, The fed considers doubling down with a mediocre hand. Our dynamic duo sees this for what it really is. May 25th, Andrew displays an exercise in mental acuity. John lands an impressive judo chop. June 22nd, Bernanke to host an unprecedented "ask me anything" for his fans. Will it work? August 3rd, John shares his take. Andrew asks an important question about QE3. August 10th, Andrew analyzes an unexpected outcome. John says "interesting". September 21st, Our beloved hosts argue about the origin of twist and shout. John refrains from using the word scam. Episode 142, February 29th, 2012, Andrew finds a curious correlation. John offers a heartfelt apology. To himself. June 13th, Quantitative easing efficacy is questioned. September 5th, Andrew reaffirms Q E 3 still makes no sense. September 19th, John gets an idea. Andrew speculates that the federal reserve indulges in recreational drug use. December 12th, John tells a joke. Andrew says unlimited beer is stupid. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? The Closest to The Pin - Carvana (CVNA) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter…
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