"Almost No One Understands Load Growth" Featuring Jigar Shah, US DOE Loan Programs Office

C.O.B. Tuesday

Today we had the pleasure of welcoming back Jigar Shah, Director of the U.S. Department of Energy Loan Programs Office (LPO). Jigar joined the LPO in 2021 and is the former founder of SunEdison and former co-founder of Generate Capital. As you may know, the LPO is equipped with more than $400 billion in loans and loan guarantees to help deploy innovative clean energy, advanced transportation, and Tribal energy projects in the US that support a cleaner and stronger energy economy. With 205 active applications and an average of 2.1 new applications per week, they are busier than ever. We were thrilled to visit with Jigar for an insightful update on the LPO’s progress and preview of the LPO’s planned activities at CERAWeek.
In our discussion, we touch on growing electricity demand and the utility loan applications the LPO has received focused on demand flexibility, grid enhancement technologies, and virtual power plants. Jigar shares his perspective on increasing interest in geothermal, nuclear and next generation hydro projects, the cost of new energy infrastructure and the impact on electricity affordability, team developments at the LPO, carbon capture and sequestration projects, EPA regulations and their impact on energy plants (particularly coal plants), tech companies’ focus on securing sufficient power for their operations to meet their growing power demands (see link to AWS Talen story from this week here), and market dynamics in methane detection and reduction technologies. We discuss the critical importance of permitting reform and the LPO’s connectivity with permitting-related government offices, the Presidential election’s potential impact on the LPO, financing mechanisms and the LPO’s interest rates, and much more. Jigar is such a fun and upbeat guy and we always enjoy a visit with him. We also appreciate that he'll field any question we throw his way, especially our questions about the inner workings of Washington DC. Thank you, Jigar!
Mike Bradley started the show by noting that this week was a light economic week with the January JOLTS Job Openings report being most watched. On the broader equity market front, AI euphoria seemingly pushes equities to new highs every week, but this week has witnessed a bit of a pullback. WTI has pulled back marginally, but still trades at the high end of its 3-month trading range. OPEC extended its 2mmbpd of production cuts through Q2’24. Physical crude markets seem tight given WTI time spreads continue to trade in steep backwardation. The 12-month natural gas strip is trading up from $2.55/MMBtu to $2.85/MMBtu on news that EQT Corp has made a strategic decision to curtail ~1bcfpd of gross production through the end of March (link here). Over the last 2 weeks, lower 48 natural gas production has averaged ~2bcfpd lower than in prior weeks. On the utility sector front, he highlighted the staggering 5-year capex plans being laid out on electricity utility Q4 calls. He noted the massive YTD performance of a handful of nuclear levered electricity equities, which look to be getting rerated markedly higher (by generalist investors) due to a more robust long-term earnings growth profile and the increasing likelihood of securing lucrative long-term datacenter electricity deals. He also noted that in time, the utility sector could also be rerated higher as investors begin viewing them more as growth stocks. Jeff Tillery and Brett Rampal also joined and added their perspectives and inquiries to the discussion with Jigar.
For our COBT history buffs, today’s episode marks Jigar’s third guest appearance on COBT. He previously joined on Feb. 27, 2023 (episode linked