197 - We need more production | Dr. Dean Foreman API

Energy Week

Drilling vs returns. U.S. oil producers' tradeoff as windfall tax threatens
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/drilling-vs-returns-us-oil-producers-tradeoff-windfall-tax-threatens-2022-06-13/?taid=62a72ca5802cad0001f87694
- will the US pass a windfall tax?
- lockdowns have helped created this situation
- market responds to incentives. interference in market has gotten us to this spot. why take it out on oil and gas companies.
- if we were to windfall tax these companies, is there any indication that this money will be used to anything beneficial to consumers
High Oil and Gas Prices Test Drive a Global Carbon Tax
https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-oil-and-gas-prices-test-drive-a-global-carbon-tax-11654956001
Biden looking to address oil refinery capacity, White House adviser says
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/biden-looking-address-oil-refinery-capacity-white-house-adviser-says-2022-06-10/
- "He is looking for what he can do administratively, whether that's working with oil companies and refineries asking them, 'We recognize your back capacity challenges - what can we do to help you maintain your refining capacity and bring more oil online?'"
US set to resume onshore leasing next week
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2340345-us-set-to-resume-onshore-leasing-next-week
-will there be interest in these leases? is the acreage of interest to drillers?
Saudi cuts crude supply to some Chinese refiners in July, sources say
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/saudi-cuts-crude-supply-some-asian-refiners-july-sources-2022-06-10/
- where will oil that isn't going to China refineries end up? Europe?
Interview with Dr. Foreman and the Monthly Statistical Report
- Continuation of same from April
- energy demand depends on overall level of economic activity. We are still historically above average (3% growth)
- Prediction of 2 million bpd of global oil demand growth. before Russia/Ukraine demand was outstripping production
- Slight increase in oil production. Is it enough to move the needle?
- Refining products is at or above 5 year range. But without as much upstream production the refiners are drawing down inventories.
- As a result of Russia/Ukraine sudden record pull for US oil and products out of US. 9.6 million bpd of US gross petroleum exports. Means we are critical to global supply.
- Have to look at, especially on coastal areas of US, stocks are below 5 year average.
- API quarterly a year ago was showing that supply gap was coming. Starts with investment and then goes to drilling. Weekly data showed that a supply gap was coming. EIA methodology relies on older data, so leads to some inaccuracies.
- 3 months ago the world deficit of supply was quantified at 3 million bpd. May outlook now is 4.2 million bpd.
- Big disagreement between EIA and IEA about how much oil from Russia is off the market.
- Lots of uncertainty about how much supply is there -- this is impacting price setting. Russian oil production is more likely to be more resilient than expected but can they ship the oil?
- Policies attacking industry are culpable.
- A ban on petroleum oil exports would be ugly - coastal areas need the most trade and would be hit hardest. The reason the east coast has higher price increases than the west coast is because trade with Europe isn't functioning the way it was. Can't get products from the middle of the country because they are being exported.
- heating oil stocks are critically low on the east coast.
- strategic reserves that are there to back up commercial reserves but they are being drawn down because of the unprecedentedly large releases.
- 40% of what is released is getting exported.
- US refiners need heavy oil to run their crackers at full speed but US SPR releases have all been light oil, which explains why so much is being exported. There is heavy oil in the SPR, but its not being released.
- still down more than 1 million bpd of production. If you went hard, you could grow that much, we've seen it. BUT lower rig productivity (down 20% year on year as of April), fewer DUCs - only 4% of new wells were DUCs in April now. Have almost exported in terms of production. Gap of 25% in terms of drilling activity compared to 2019.
- industrial side of the economy is still growing but more slowly. consumer sentiment, preliminary reading, for June is lowest since the survey was started. Consumers are WORRIED.
- Critical that we see, with sincerity, the policy proposals to incentivize US production. If none, it will be hard to dig ourselves out of the hole we are in.
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