Gerard Minack (Minack Advisors) - The End of Secular Stagnation

Far From The Finishing Post

Gerard Minack has a wealth of experience as a macro strategist and founded Minack Advisors in 2013. Gerard has been particularly prescient over the last 18 months, highlighting the probability of rising inflation and higher interest rates well before many others. We discuss how the pandemic changed Gerard's macro views, why he believes secular stagnation has come to an end and what implications that has for investors in the years ahead. Gerard also talks about why he believes a recession in the US next year is more likely than not.
Show notes:
[1:19] Gerard talks about joining the industry on Black Monday in 1987
[2:17] Founding Minack Advisors after a successful career in big investment banks
[6:49] The end of secular stagnation
[11:34] The implications of such a change
[14:06] Most investors still underestimate the possibility of secular change
[15:52] The risk of recession isn't adequately priced by markets
[17:25] Why Gerard believes this will be a two part bear market with a recession hitting earnings next year
[20:35] Equities usually trough a few months before the end of a recession
[25:00] Labour inflation and why the Federal Reserve's job is so hard
[27:08] The winners of the next decade
[33:11] Private assets and why it is becoming harder to generate alpha
[35:27] Why Gerard thinks US government bonds may now be a good place to hide
[37:28] The credit cycle
[40:20] Do a job that you enjoy