DEVASTATION: Hurricane Impact on US Ag (Crush Plant Shutdowns??)

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌱 Soybean Futures Surge
Soybean futures rallied sharply on Friday, with the nearby Nov24 contract gaining nearly 25 cents (2.4%) per bushel—its best close since July 25th! The rally was largely driven by soybean meal futures, which skyrocketed 5.3%. Hurricane-related storms are expected to disrupt soybean crushing in some southeastern US facilities, leading to market adjustments regarding meal supplies. Concerns about weather conditions in Brazil also contributed to the upward movement.
📊 Grain Stocks Report Coming Up
The USDA is set to release its quarterly Grain Stocks report today at 11:00 AM CST. Analysts expect significantly higher stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat compared to last year. Estimates suggest:
Corn stocks: up 36%
Soybean stocks: up 32%
Wheat stocks: up 12%
There may also be adjustments to the 2023 production estimates for corn and soybeans.
📉 Funds Adjust Positions
"The Funds" have been actively trimming their net short positions in the corn and soybean markets. As of September 24, they were net buyers of 4,000 contracts of corn and 37,000 contracts of soybeans. The net short in soybeans is now 76,000 contracts, the smallest since early June. Since the peak short in July, fund traders have covered 362,000 contracts across corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat.
🌾 Decline in European Wheat Crop
Europe's wheat production is expected to hit a 12-year low. The European Commission estimates this season's soft wheat crop at 114.6 million metric tons, down 9% from last year, largely due to unfavorable weather conditions. France and Germany, the leading producers, are projected to face significant declines.
⚓ Strike at Vancouver Port Ends
The Vancouver grain workers' strike concluded last week with a tentative agreement. The four-day strike impacted six key terminals, affecting grain exports. A ratification vote is scheduled for Friday. Meanwhile, dockworkers at the Port of Montréal are set to strike for three days starting today.
💰 Gold Positions on the Rise
Money managers have ramped up their bullish positions in gold, increasing their net-long position by 0.9% as of last Tuesday. The net long now stands at 254,841 contracts, the highest since March 2020, with gold prices reaching an all-time high of $2,685.58 per ounce.
🛢️ Flash Sale of Soybean Oil
USDA reported a flash sale of 20,000 metric tons of soybean oil to South Korea for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. This marks the first flash sale of soybean oil since April 2023.
Stay tuned for more updates as we head into the week! 🌟📈