Manage episode 321359896 series 2860253
This short podcast covers some key economic indicators that have been bubbling to the surface, leading up to the current and stressful geo-political environment causing the markets to become very volatile.
What do I discuss?
- The December 3% drop in real personal discretionary income.
- Consumer Confidence Labor Market Differential number and why this is something to look at now. It has just hit a cycle peak not seen since the mid 1960's. What could this mean for the performance of the S&P 500?
- Inflation concerns and the potential response from the Federal Reserve
- Expecting a 25-50 bps increase in March.
- Explanation of what it means when High Yield Bond spreads are increasing. Why should investors pay attention to this?
- Real Estate- What could be the impact to real estate asset prices if the fed raises rates, inflation continues and consumers discretionary income is dropping?
- Reference to the 2008 Financial Crisis
- Rental inflation is rising rapidly
- The recent return differential between growth and value stocks
- David Einhorn "recession" prediction
- Rent of Income is the biggest component, at 32%, of the Consumer Price Index.
- The potential global economic impact from the Russian invasion of the Ukraine
- Russia's biggest trading partners
- The Russian impact on their markets and the Ruble
- Financial Sanctions and their impact: SWIFT, etc.
- The ability for the US/Europe/Japan to continue growing as they represent 50% of the global economy
- UBS CIO & Economist discussion on Feb. 24th
- Historically 3 months after a global shock due to conflicts over oil, the markets were back up
- Sanctions will have a material impact on the Russian economy
- The situation Germany is in, being the most vulnerable to Russian energy, reinforces the need for more green energy.
- Some specific action points existing investors and new investors can do now to put themselves in a good position- managing risk/reward! Warren Buffet's advice is included:)
- Listen to my podcast on FEAR with Stefan Labas, executive health coach. If nothing else, our timing was good to release a podcast on fear this week. I highly encourage you to listen as these global shocks have consequences beyond wealth.
- If you need personal coaching to establish ongoing financial confidence, reduce uncertainty, and build a road map; check out the new 3 session coaching course.