E137: Stripe’s $70b valuation; Revolut $40b valuation; $267m for Human Interest; Tekion $4b valuation; Starlink approved in South Sudan; OpenAI GPT-4o Mini launched; Anthropic, Menlo launch fund

This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks

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Weekly pre-IPO reports…
- Valuations, revenue multiples, performance = www.agdillon.com/reports
- Market update pdf = www.agdillon.com/update
- Index fact sheet = www.agdillon.com/index
00:07 | Stripe’s $70b valuation
- Online payments company
- Sequoia inter-fund transaction
- $27.51/share at $70b valuation, +7.7% vs its last round
- Sequoia LPs get liquidity, realized returns
- Emerging tech is staying private for longer
- Growth companies are private not public, time to allocate to pre-IPO stocks
01:41 | Revolut $40b valuation
- UK online bank
- Tiger Global to lead $40b round
- $2.2b 2023 revenue, 2x vs 2022
- $574m 2023 pretax profit vs -$33m in 2022
- 18.1x revenue multiple
- $25b secondary market valuation, +60% overnight return!
02:25 | Anthropic, Menlo launch fund
- Anthropic is AI large language model biz, Menlo is premier Silicon Valley VC firm
- $100m fund to invest into AI startups
- Menlo makes investment
- Anthropic provides AI LLM credits
- Anthropic = $22b secondary market valuation, +20% vs Jan 2024 round
03:22 | $267m for Human Interest
- 401k focused fintech
- 3 minutes to open 401k account
- 25,000 small business customers
- $100m in ARR
- 70% projected 2024 sales growth
- IPO planned within two years
04:03 | Tekion $4b valuation
- Automotive technology business
- $200m investment from Dragoneer
- Founder is former Tesla CIO, jay Vijayan
- 2025 to be 1st profitable year
- Other investors = Index Ventures, BMW i Ventures, Advent International
04:53 | Starlink approved in South Sudan
- SpaceX’s satellite internet business
- Only 36% of South Sudan citizens connected to internet
- SpaceX seeks official distributor in South Sudan
- $210b valuation based on current tender offer in process
05:44 | OpenAI GPT-4o Mini launched
- AI large language model business
- 4o Mini is 60% cheaper vs 4o proper
- 4o Mini is replacing GPT-3.5 Turbo
- Businesses like smaller models as they get job done but at lower expense
- Lower expense improves ROIs
- Watch for big earnings pop and acquisitions from businesses that implement AI
07:32 | Pre-IPO Stock Market Weekly Performance
- www.agdillon.com/reports for full pdf
- Pre-IPO +0.19% for week, +65.28% for last 1yr
- Up week: Revolut +8.0%, Chime +5.5%, Deel 4.4%, Ramp +3.4%, SpaceX 3.2%
- Down week: Cohere -11.2%, Epic Games -3.2%, Anduril -2.8%, Neuralink -2.4%, eToro -2.3%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $290b, SpaceX $205b, OpenAI $106b, Stripe $70b, Databricks $44b
08:23 | Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index Weekly Performance
- www.agdillon.com/index for pdf with constituent level performance by year
- 2024 Vintage Index top contributors since inception: Rippling +107%, Revolut +68%, Anduril +51%, Klarna +46%, Epic Games +32%
- Key metric averages for all Vintage Indexes 5 years old or older…
445% cumulative return since inception
61% realized, distributed to investors
5.45 TVPI; 3.31 DPI, 2.14 RVPI
4.1 years to return the fund