Javier Vinós: Tonga Volcano Caused Record Warming | Tom Nelson Pod #236

Tom Nelson

- Ph.D. degree in Biochemistry and Molecular Biology. School of Medicine. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain)

- Postdoctoral researcher at the Howard Hughes Medical Institute and Department of Biology, University of California, San Diego (USA)

- Associate Researcher at the Medical Research Center, Laboratory of Molecular Biology, Cambridge (UK)

- Staff Researcher at the Spanish Council for Scientific Research

- Topics of research: molecular genetics, neurobiology, and cancer

- Over 1200 scientific citations

- Currently unaffiliated with academic institutions

The main points from the presentation are:

1. Any annual deviation from the long-term warming trend is due to natural variability. It cannot be due to human causes.

2. Years that are warmer than the long-term trend are eventually compensated by cooler years, so the long-term trend remains, but only the warmer years become newsworthy.

3. The 2023-2024 climate event cannot be reproduced by models because they are notoriously bad at reproducing natural variability, and the Hunga Tonga eruption is unprecedented, so its full effects are unknown. The effect of the eruption is uncharted territory, not the current climate situation.

4. Although 2023 and 2024 are natural deviations from the long-term trend, there is a concerted effort by the UN and some scientists to blame them on human emissions in order to advance the energy transition agenda.

5. After a series of years that are warmer than the long-term trend, we should have a series of years that are cooler than the long-term trend because the cause of global warming responsible for the trend has not been affected. So just waiting will fix the volcanic anomaly.

00:00 Introduction and Importance of Climate Events

00:47 Analyzing the 2023 Climate Event

01:37 Temperature Records and Trends

03:24 Ocean Temperature Anomalies

05:28 Unprecedented Warming and Scientific Puzzles

06:22 Potential Causes of Abrupt Warming

12:27 Volcanic Eruptions and Climate Impact

19:46 Natural Variability vs. Human Impact

25:20 Future Climate Predictions and Adaptation

35:42 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Vinos’ “Science and Climate” YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@ScienceClimate-uf4xm

More of Javier’s work on Andy May’s site: https://andymaypetrophysicist.com/

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