181. Baking it Down - Correlation and Causation

Baking it Down with Sugar Cookie Marketing 🍪

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👙 Correlation & Causation - Looking at the full data picture.

In this week's Baking it Down Podcast - Episode 181 - Correlation and Causation, we wanted to talk about the dangers of misassigned reasons why you think your marketing isn't working.

Let's define things before we jump in:

• Correlation: a mutual relationship or connection between two or more things.
• Causation: the relationship between cause and effect.
• Coincidence: a remarkable concurrence of events or circumstances without apparent causal connection.

So here's the hot take: you must understand the correct cause of something before you make a correlation to its results.

😿 For example, let's say it's raining and my cat, Frank, throws up. I could make the correlation that whenever it 🌧️ rains, Frank throws up, right? I mean - I watched it happen - pitter-patter of rain. Violent cough of gastrointestinal distressed cat.

Wrong - 🚫 because yes, while those two events happened at the same time, they were unrelated (not correlated). They just happened to well... happen at the same time. Other than coincidences, they have absolutely zero relationship.

🐈 Now let's look more closely at Franks' eating habits. Frank tends to upchuck (haven't used that word since I was in middle school, but here we are) when I feed him wet cat food. 🍛 Every time I've ever attempted to feed my little furry friend a sauce-covered pate, he has regurgitated on my carpet a few hours later.

This has been proven 100% of the times I've attempted to feed him wet food. 💯 I can now safely correlate the serving of wet foods to causing Frank to throw up.

Let's bring it back to marketing. Making the incorrect correlations in your marketing strategies can spell long-term disaster. 😨 "My posts do better when there's a 70% chance of snow" is a feeling, but the data proves that despite Jack Frost's potential appearance, ❄ your Facebook post reach is more than likely related to the closing of local school systems forcing parents to stay home rather than frozen water falling from the sky. ☃️

🚫 Incorrection Correlation: "I posted an unstaged photo and my reach on Facebook increased. Thus, staged photography is not ideal."

✅ Potential Questions to Find Correct Correlations:

• ✅ Did you post when the algo was favoring your content? Algorithms giveth and taketh - post in a slow time? Welcome to better reach. Post on election day? Enjoy your new pet crickets.

🚫 Incorrection Correlation: "I sold nothing at a market I attended recently, but when I flash sold the unsold product from the market on my page, I sold a ton. Thus markets are not for me."